Texas elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
Texas Senate
D 66%
James Talarico · Ken Paxton
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Governor
Texas Governor
R 74%
Gina Hinojosa · Greg Abbott
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: party counted directly, including same-party contests · Gray: forecast withheld
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-1 | Yolanda Prince · Nathaniel Moran | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-2 | Shaun Finnie · Steve Toth | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-3 | Evan Hunt · Keith Self | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-4 | Jason Pearce · Pat Fallon | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-5 | Chelsey Hockett · Lance Gooden | R 98% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-6 | Danny Minton · Jake Ellzey | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-7 | Lizzie Fletcher · Espoir Ngabo · Alexander Hale | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-8 | Laura Jones · Jessica Steinmann | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-9 | Leticia Gutierrez · Alex Mealer | R 95% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-10 | Caitlin Rourk · Chris Gober | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-11 | Claire Reynolds · August Pfluger | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-12 | Angela Rodriguez Prilliman · Craig Goldman | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-13 | Mark Nair · Ronny Jackson | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-14 | Thurman Bartie · Randy Weber | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-15 | Bobby Pulido · Monica De La Cruz | D 64% | Lean D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-16 | Veronica Escobar · Adam Bauman | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-17 | Casey Shepard · Pete Sessions | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-18 | Christian Menefee · Ronald Whitfield | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-19 | Kyle Rable · Tom Sell | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-20 | Joaquin Castro · Edgardo Baez | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-21 | Kristin Hook · Mark Teixeira | R 98% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-22 | Marquette Greene-Scott · Trever Nehls | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-23 | Katy Padilla Stout · Ben Mendoza · Brandon Herrera | R 76% | Lean R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-24 | Kevin Burge · Beth Van Duyne | R 96% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-25 | Dione Sims · Roger Williams | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-26 | Steven Shook · Phil Gray · Brandon Gill | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-27 | Tanya Lloyd · Michael Cloud | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar · Marlón Durán · Tano Tijerina | D 77% | Lean D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-29 | Sylvia Garcia · Martha Fierro | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-30 | Frederick Haynes III · Everett Jackson | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-31 | Justin Early · Greg Stoker · John Carter | R 98% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-32 | Dan Barrios · Jace Yarbrough | R 94% | Likely R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-33 | Colin Allred · Patrick Gillespie | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez · Chris Royal · Eddie Espinoza · Eric Flores | D 75% | Lean D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-35 | Johnny Garcia · Carlos De La Cruz | R 52% | Toss-up | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-36 | Rhonda Hart · Brian Babin | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-37 | Greg Casar · Lauren Peña | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| TX-38 | Melissa McDonough · Alex McMenemy · Jon Bonck | R 98% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas House | 150 | 76 | 2% | 97% |
| Texas Senate | 16 | 16 | <1% | >99% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
Texas election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.