Texas election questions
Questions on races and election records in this state.
Election questions
How competitive are Texas’s congressional races in 2026?
FutureBallot rates five House districts in Texas competitive in the dated forecasts listed below. The table covers thirty-eight House districts. Districts with missing or withheld forecast evidence: zero. FutureBallot also rates one Senate race competitive among the Senate forecasts listed.
| Contest | Highest modeled chance | Status | Evidence date |
|---|---|---|---|
| TX-35 | Carlos De La Cruz: 52.2% | Toss-up | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-15 | Bobby Pulido: 64.0% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez: 75.0% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-23 | Brandon Herrera: 76.1% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar: 77.0% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-32 | Jace Yarbrough: 93.8% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-9 | Alex Mealer: 94.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-24 | Beth Van Duyne: 96.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-31 | John Carter: 98.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-38 | Jon Bonck: 98.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-21 | Mark Teixeira: 98.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-5 | Lance Gooden: 98.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-17 | Pete Sessions: 98.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-22 | Trever Nehls: 98.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-2 | Steve Toth: 98.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-27 | Michael Cloud: 99.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-10 | Chris Gober: 99.1% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-6 | Jake Ellzey: 99.2% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-14 | Randy Weber: 99.2% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-25 | Roger Williams: 99.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-4 | Pat Fallon: 99.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-3 | Keith Self: 99.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-8 | Jessica Steinmann: 99.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-12 | Craig Goldman: 99.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-26 | Brandon Gill: 99.4% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-36 | Brian Babin: 99.4% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-11 | August Pfluger: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-16 | Veronica Escobar: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-29 | Sylvia Garcia: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-20 | Joaquin Castro: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-1 | Nathaniel Moran: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-13 | Ronny Jackson: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-19 | Tom Sell: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-7 | Lizzie Fletcher: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-18 | Christian Menefee: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-30 | Frederick Haynes III: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-33 | Colin Allred: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-37 | Greg Casar: 100.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| U.S. Senate | James Talarico: 67.6% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 00:40 UTC |
Ratings use the favorite’s chance rounded to a whole percent. Competitive means Lean or Toss-up, below 85%; Toss-up is below 60%.
House contests are listed from the closest modeled race outward. Assignments and unavailable forecasts follow the modeled races.
A party assignment does not necessarily mean a candidate is unopposed. Same-party, independent or minor-party candidates can still contest a seat.
Sources: All House district statuses · Rating definitions
How competitive are Texas’s U.S. House races in 2026?
FutureBallot rates five House districts in Texas competitive in the dated forecasts listed below. The table covers thirty-eight House districts. Districts with missing or withheld forecast evidence: zero.
| Contest | Highest modeled chance | Status | Evidence date |
|---|---|---|---|
| TX-35 | Carlos De La Cruz: 52.2% | Toss-up | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-15 | Bobby Pulido: 64.0% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-34 | Vicente Gonzalez: 75.0% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-23 | Brandon Herrera: 76.1% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-28 | Henry Cuellar: 77.0% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-32 | Jace Yarbrough: 93.8% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-9 | Alex Mealer: 94.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-24 | Beth Van Duyne: 96.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-31 | John Carter: 98.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-38 | Jon Bonck: 98.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-21 | Mark Teixeira: 98.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-5 | Lance Gooden: 98.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-17 | Pete Sessions: 98.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-22 | Trever Nehls: 98.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-2 | Steve Toth: 98.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-27 | Michael Cloud: 99.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-10 | Chris Gober: 99.1% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-6 | Jake Ellzey: 99.2% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-14 | Randy Weber: 99.2% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-25 | Roger Williams: 99.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-4 | Pat Fallon: 99.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-3 | Keith Self: 99.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-8 | Jessica Steinmann: 99.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-12 | Craig Goldman: 99.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-26 | Brandon Gill: 99.4% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-36 | Brian Babin: 99.4% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-11 | August Pfluger: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-16 | Veronica Escobar: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-29 | Sylvia Garcia: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-20 | Joaquin Castro: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-1 | Nathaniel Moran: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-13 | Ronny Jackson: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-19 | Tom Sell: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-7 | Lizzie Fletcher: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-18 | Christian Menefee: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-30 | Frederick Haynes III: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-33 | Colin Allred: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| TX-37 | Greg Casar: 100.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
Ratings use the favorite’s chance rounded to a whole percent. Competitive means Lean or Toss-up, below 85%; Toss-up is below 60%.
House contests are listed from the closest modeled race outward. Assignments and unavailable forecasts follow the modeled races.
A party assignment does not necessarily mean a candidate is unopposed. Same-party, independent or minor-party candidates can still contest a seat.
Sources: All House district statuses · Rating definitions
Which party, if any, is favored in each 2026 state legislative chamber with seats up in Texas?
FutureBallot’s state legislative forecast dated October 30, 2026, 12:45 UTC lists majority chances, marks a chamber nonpartisan, or reports unresolved probabilities for each chamber with seats up.
| Chamber | Democratic majority | Republican majority | Seats up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas House | 2.1% | 97.2% | 150 |
| Texas Senate | less than 0.1% | more than 99.9% | 16 |
Each chamber is a separate contest. These are not joint probabilities of controlling the legislature. A range assigns seats that cannot be forecast to each party in turn. When exact party probabilities sum to less than 100%, the remainder is the chance neither party has a majority. No party-majority probability is reported for a nonpartisan chamber.
Sources: State legislative forecasts and limitations · Texas House · Texas Senate
Where can I find Texas election dates and voting information?
Use Texas’s election office for its election calendar, ballot information and links to local voting services. Check the year and whether the date concerns a primary, general, special or runoff election.
The office link was read from USAGov on 2026-10-30. FutureBallot does not maintain a separate calendar of voting deadlines.
Sources: Texas election office — USAGov directory · USAGov official-office directory