Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Oct 22–28, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Talarico 52 (D) · Paxton 48 (R) | D+4 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 26–28, 2026 | Quantus Insights | 1221 LV | Paxton 49 (R) · Talarico 48 (D) · Brown 1 (L) | R+1 | Citation unreadable release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 26–28, 2026 | Quantus Insights | 1221 LV | Abbott 51 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D) · Dixon 1 (L) | R+5 | Citation unreadable release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 23–27, 2026 | A2 Insights | 631 LV | Talarico 50 (D) · Paxton 47 (R) | D+3 | Citation unreadable release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 20–27, 2026 | SSRS for CNN | 923 LV | Talarico 49 (D) · Paxton 43 (R) | D+6 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 20–27, 2026 | SSRS for CNN | 923 LV | Abbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D) | R+2 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 23–26, 2026 | Data for Progress | 712 LV | Talarico 49 (D) · Paxton 45 (R) · Brown 2 (L) | D+4 | Not checked yet release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 21–26, 2026 | YouGov Blue for 254 Labs | 1000 RV | Talarico 51 (D) · Paxton 43 (R) | D+8 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 21–26, 2026 | YouGov Blue for 254 Labs | 1000 RV | Hinojosa 49 (D) · Abbott 46 (R) | D+3 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 21–25, 2026 | Texas Southern University | 2000 LV | Talarico 49 (D) · Paxton 47 (R) · Brown 3 (L) | D+2 | Not checked yet release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 21–25, 2026 | Texas Southern University | 2000 LV | Abbott 50 (R) · Hinojosa 47 (D) · Dixon 2 (L) | R+3 | Not checked yet release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 20–21, 2026 | Rasmussen Reports | 965 LV | Talarico 45 (D) · Paxton 45 (R) · Brown 5 (L) | Even | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 17–21, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Talarico 51 (D) · Paxton 49 (R) | D+2 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 13–21, 2026 | Univision/YouGov | 1000 RV | Talarico 50 (D) · Paxton 45 (R) | D+5 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 13–21, 2026 | Univision/YouGov | 1000 RV | Abbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D) | R+2 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 17–21, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Abbott 52 (R) · Hinojosa 48 (D) | R+5 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 1–20, 2026 | Verasight/VoteHub | 509 LV | Talarico 48 (D) · Paxton 45 (R) · Brown 1 (L) | D+3 | Citation unreadable release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 1–20, 2026 | Verasight/VoteHub | 509 LV | Abbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D) · Dixon 1 (L) | R+2 | Citation unreadable release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 17–19, 2026 | Emerson College | 1000 LV | Talarico 48 (D) · Paxton 46 (R) · Brown 1 (L) | D+2 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 15–19, 2026 | Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | 1398 LV | Talarico 49 (D) · Paxton 49 (R) | Even | Not checked yet release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 17–19, 2026 | Emerson College | 1000 LV | Abbott 49 (R) · Hinojosa 45 (D) · Dixon 1 (L) | R+4 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 15–19, 2026 | Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | 1398 LV | Abbott 52 (R) · Hinojosa 47 (D) | R+5 | Not checked yet release |
| TX-35 | Oct 14–19, 2026 | Washington Post/Schar School | 606 LV | De La Cruz 48 (R) · Garcia 47 (D) | R+1 | Not checked yet release |
| TX-34 | Oct 14–19, 2026 | Washington Post/Schar School | 626 LV | Gonzalez 50 (D) · Flores 43 (R) | D+7 | Not checked yet release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 15–18, 2026 | Texas Public Opinion Research | 969 LV | Talarico 51 (D) · Paxton 47 (R) · Brown 2 (L) | D+4 | Not checked yet release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 15–18, 2026 | Texas Public Opinion Research | 969 LV | Abbott 51 (R) · Hinojosa 48 (D) · Dixon 1 (L) | R+3 | Not checked yet release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 8–16, 2026 | CBS News/YouGov | 1492 LV | Talarico 51 (D) · Paxton 49 (R) | D+2 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 8–16, 2026 | CBS News/YouGov | 1492 LV | Abbott 52 (R) · Hinojosa 48 (D) | R+4 | Not checked yet release |
| TX-15 | Oct 13–16, 2026 | Texas Southern University for El Pais | — | Pulido 51 (D) · De La Cruz 44 (R) | D+7 | Not checked yet release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 10–15, 2026 | Cor Strategies for Heritage Action | 1409 LV | Talarico 44 (D) · Paxton 40 (R) | D+4 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 13–14, 2026 | InsiderAdvantage | 1200 LV | Paxton 49 (R) · Talarico 48 (D) | R+1 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 10–14, 2026 | University of Houston | 2000 LV | Talarico 48 (D) · Paxton 46 (R) · Brown 3 (L) | D+2 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Sep 30–Oct 14, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Talarico 52 (D) · Paxton 48 (R) | D+4 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 10–14, 2026 | University of Houston | 2000 LV | Abbott 49 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D) · Dixon 2 (L) | R+3 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Sep 30–Oct 14, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Abbott 51 (R) · Hinojosa 49 (D) | R+2 | Checked release |
| TX-35 | Oct 12–14, 2026 | Emerson College for Poll Vault | 417 LV | Garcia 51 (D) · De La Cruz 49 (R) | D+2 | Not checked yet release |
| TX-35 | Oct 12–14, 2026 | Normington, Petts and Associates for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 400 LV | Garcia 47 (D) · De La Cruz 45 (R) | D+2 | Not checked yet release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 9–13, 2026 | GS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies for Cook Political Report | 934 LV | Talarico 49 (D) · Paxton 44 (R) · Brown 3 (L) | D+5 | Not checked yet release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 9–13, 2026 | GS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies for Cook Political Report | 934 LV | Abbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D) · Dixon 3 (L) | R+2 | Not checked yet release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 9–11, 2026 | Quantus Insights | 854 LV | Talarico 47 (D) · Paxton 47 (R) | Even | Citation unreadable release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 8–11, 2026 | Marist College | 1196 RV | Talarico 48 (D) · Paxton 44 (R) | D+4 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 8–11, 2026 | Marist College | 1196 RV | Abbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 47 (D) | R+1 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Oct 6–8, 2026 | Trafalgar Group | 1086 LV | Talarico 47 (D) · Paxton 44 (R) | D+3 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Oct 5–8, 2026 | GBAO for Hinojosa's campaign partisan sponsor | 800 LV | Hinojosa 47 (D) · Abbott 45 (R) | D+2 | Checked release |
| TX-9 | Oct 3–7, 2026 | University of Houston | 677 LV | Mealer 48 (R) · Gutierrez 42 (D) | R+6 | Checked release |
| TX-23 | Oct 5–7, 2026 | Normington, Petts and Associates for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 400 LV | Herrera 46 (R) · Stout 46 (D) | Even | Release found release |
| Texas Senate | Sep 28–Oct 5, 2026 | YouGov | 3625 LV | Talarico 50 (D) · Paxton 44 (R) | D+6 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Sep 25–Oct 5, 2026 | University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | Talarico 50 (D) · Paxton 47 (R) | D+3 | Release found release |
| Texas Governor | Sep 25–Oct 5, 2026 | University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | Hinojosa 49 (D) · Abbott 48 (R) | D+1 | Release found release |
| Texas Governor | Sep 28–Oct 5, 2026 | YouGov | 3625 LV | Hinojosa 48 (D) · Abbott 47 (R) | D+1 | Checked release |
| TX-2 | Sep 29–Oct 4, 2026 | Impact Research for Finnie's campaign partisan sponsor | 501 LV | Toth 46 (R) · Finnie 37 (D) | R+9 | Not checked yet release |
| Texas Senate | Sep 21–30, 2026 | New York Times/Siena College | 615 LV | Talarico 51 (D) · Paxton 45 (R) | D+6 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Sep 21–30, 2026 | New York Times/Siena College | 615 LV | Hinojosa 49 (D) · Abbott 46 (R) | D+3 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Sep 28–29, 2026 | Rasmussen Reports | 1128 LV | Talarico 46 (D) · Paxton 45 (R) | D+1 | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Sep 18–28, 2026 | UMass Lowell/YouGov | 850 LV | Talarico 45 (D) · Paxton 45 (R) | Even | Checked release |
| Texas Senate | Sep 24–28, 2026 | Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | 881 LV | Talarico 51 (D) · Paxton 49 (R) | D+2 | Release found release |
| Texas Senate | Sep 20–28, 2026 | Guidant Polling and Strategy for Public First Action | 800 LV | Talarico 47 (D) · Paxton 44 (R) | D+3 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Sep 20–28, 2026 | Guidant Polling and Strategy for Public First Action | 800 LV | Abbott 46 (R) · Hinojosa 44 (D) | R+2 | Checked release |
| Texas Governor | Sep 24–28, 2026 | Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | 881 LV | Abbott 52 (R) · Hinojosa 47 (D) | R+5 | Citation unreadable release |
| Texas Governor | Sep 18–28, 2026 | UMass Lowell/YouGov | 850 LV | Abbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 44 (D) | R+4 | Checked release |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Governor | 54 | Oct 28, 2026 | R+2 (22) | R+3 | Texas Governor forecast |
| Texas Senate | 67 | Oct 28, 2026 | D+3 (30) | D+3 | Texas Senate forecast |
| TX-23 | 2 | Oct 7, 2026 | Even (1) | — | TX-23 forecast |
| TX-35 | 4 | Oct 19, 2026 | D+1 (3) | — | TX-35 forecast |
| TX-9 | 2 | Oct 7, 2026 | R+6 (2) | — | TX-9 forecast |
| TX-34 | 4 | Oct 19, 2026 | D+7 (1) | — | TX-34 forecast |
| TX-10 | 1 | Sep 22, 2026 | R+7 (1) | — | TX-10 forecast |
| TX-2 | 1 | Oct 4, 2026 | R+9 (1) | — | TX-2 forecast |
| TX-15 | 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | D+10 (2) | — | TX-15 forecast |
| TX-28 | 2 | Aug 22, 2026 | D+11 (1) | — | TX-28 forecast |