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Latest polls

Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).

Newest polls

All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.

Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.

Newest polls
RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMarginChecked
Texas SenateOct 22–28, 2026ActiVote400 LVTalarico 52 (D) · Paxton 48 (R)D+4Checked release
Texas SenateOct 26–28, 2026Quantus Insights1221 LVPaxton 49 (R) · Talarico 48 (D) · Brown 1 (L)R+1Citation unreadable release
Texas GovernorOct 26–28, 2026Quantus Insights1221 LVAbbott 51 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D) · Dixon 1 (L)R+5Citation unreadable release
Texas SenateOct 23–27, 2026A2 Insights631 LVTalarico 50 (D) · Paxton 47 (R)D+3Citation unreadable release
Texas SenateOct 20–27, 2026SSRS
for CNN
923 LVTalarico 49 (D) · Paxton 43 (R)D+6Checked release
Texas GovernorOct 20–27, 2026SSRS
for CNN
923 LVAbbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D)R+2Checked release
Texas SenateOct 23–26, 2026Data for Progress712 LVTalarico 49 (D) · Paxton 45 (R) · Brown 2 (L)D+4Not checked yet release
Texas SenateOct 21–26, 2026YouGov Blue
for 254 Labs
1000 RVTalarico 51 (D) · Paxton 43 (R)D+8Checked release
Texas GovernorOct 21–26, 2026YouGov Blue
for 254 Labs
1000 RVHinojosa 49 (D) · Abbott 46 (R)D+3Checked release
Texas SenateOct 21–25, 2026Texas Southern University2000 LVTalarico 49 (D) · Paxton 47 (R) · Brown 3 (L)D+2Not checked yet release
Texas GovernorOct 21–25, 2026Texas Southern University2000 LVAbbott 50 (R) · Hinojosa 47 (D) · Dixon 2 (L)R+3Not checked yet release
Texas SenateOct 20–21, 2026Rasmussen Reports965 LVTalarico 45 (D) · Paxton 45 (R) · Brown 5 (L)EvenChecked release
Texas SenateOct 17–21, 2026ActiVote400 LVTalarico 51 (D) · Paxton 49 (R)D+2Checked release
Texas SenateOct 13–21, 2026Univision/YouGov1000 RVTalarico 50 (D) · Paxton 45 (R)D+5Checked release
Texas GovernorOct 13–21, 2026Univision/YouGov1000 RVAbbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D)R+2Checked release
Texas GovernorOct 17–21, 2026ActiVote400 LVAbbott 52 (R) · Hinojosa 48 (D)R+5Checked release
Texas SenateOct 1–20, 2026Verasight/VoteHub509 LVTalarico 48 (D) · Paxton 45 (R) · Brown 1 (L)D+3Citation unreadable release
Texas GovernorOct 1–20, 2026Verasight/VoteHub509 LVAbbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D) · Dixon 1 (L)R+2Citation unreadable release
Texas SenateOct 17–19, 2026Emerson College1000 LVTalarico 48 (D) · Paxton 46 (R) · Brown 1 (L)D+2Checked release
Texas SenateOct 15–19, 2026Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News
1398 LVTalarico 49 (D) · Paxton 49 (R)EvenNot checked yet release
Texas GovernorOct 17–19, 2026Emerson College1000 LVAbbott 49 (R) · Hinojosa 45 (D) · Dixon 1 (L)R+4Checked release
Texas GovernorOct 15–19, 2026Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News
1398 LVAbbott 52 (R) · Hinojosa 47 (D)R+5Not checked yet release
TX-35Oct 14–19, 2026Washington Post/Schar School606 LVDe La Cruz 48 (R) · Garcia 47 (D)R+1Not checked yet release
TX-34Oct 14–19, 2026Washington Post/Schar School626 LVGonzalez 50 (D) · Flores 43 (R)D+7Not checked yet release
Texas SenateOct 15–18, 2026Texas Public Opinion Research969 LVTalarico 51 (D) · Paxton 47 (R) · Brown 2 (L)D+4Not checked yet release
Texas GovernorOct 15–18, 2026Texas Public Opinion Research969 LVAbbott 51 (R) · Hinojosa 48 (D) · Dixon 1 (L)R+3Not checked yet release
Texas SenateOct 8–16, 2026CBS News/YouGov1492 LVTalarico 51 (D) · Paxton 49 (R)D+2Checked release
Texas GovernorOct 8–16, 2026CBS News/YouGov1492 LVAbbott 52 (R) · Hinojosa 48 (D)R+4Not checked yet release
TX-15Oct 13–16, 2026Texas Southern University
for El Pais
— Pulido 51 (D) · De La Cruz 44 (R)D+7Not checked yet release
Texas SenateOct 10–15, 2026Cor Strategies
for Heritage Action
1409 LVTalarico 44 (D) · Paxton 40 (R)D+4Checked release
Texas SenateOct 13–14, 2026InsiderAdvantage1200 LVPaxton 49 (R) · Talarico 48 (D)R+1Checked release
Texas SenateOct 10–14, 2026University of Houston2000 LVTalarico 48 (D) · Paxton 46 (R) · Brown 3 (L)D+2Checked release
Texas SenateSep 30–Oct 14, 2026ActiVote400 LVTalarico 52 (D) · Paxton 48 (R)D+4Checked release
Texas GovernorOct 10–14, 2026University of Houston2000 LVAbbott 49 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D) · Dixon 2 (L)R+3Checked release
Texas GovernorSep 30–Oct 14, 2026ActiVote400 LVAbbott 51 (R) · Hinojosa 49 (D)R+2Checked release
TX-35Oct 12–14, 2026Emerson College
for Poll Vault
417 LVGarcia 51 (D) · De La Cruz 49 (R)D+2Not checked yet release
TX-35Oct 12–14, 2026Normington, Petts and Associates
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
400 LVGarcia 47 (D) · De La Cruz 45 (R)D+2Not checked yet release
Texas SenateOct 9–13, 2026GS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies
for Cook Political Report
934 LVTalarico 49 (D) · Paxton 44 (R) · Brown 3 (L)D+5Not checked yet release
Texas GovernorOct 9–13, 2026GS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies
for Cook Political Report
934 LVAbbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 46 (D) · Dixon 3 (L)R+2Not checked yet release
Texas SenateOct 9–11, 2026Quantus Insights854 LVTalarico 47 (D) · Paxton 47 (R)EvenCitation unreadable release
Texas SenateOct 8–11, 2026Marist College1196 RVTalarico 48 (D) · Paxton 44 (R)D+4Checked release
Texas GovernorOct 8–11, 2026Marist College1196 RVAbbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 47 (D)R+1Checked release
Texas SenateOct 6–8, 2026Trafalgar Group1086 LVTalarico 47 (D) · Paxton 44 (R)D+3Checked release
Texas GovernorOct 5–8, 2026GBAO
for Hinojosa's campaign
partisan sponsor
800 LVHinojosa 47 (D) · Abbott 45 (R)D+2Checked release
TX-9Oct 3–7, 2026University of Houston677 LVMealer 48 (R) · Gutierrez 42 (D)R+6Checked release
TX-23Oct 5–7, 2026Normington, Petts and Associates
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
400 LVHerrera 46 (R) · Stout 46 (D)EvenRelease found release
Texas SenateSep 28–Oct 5, 2026YouGov3625 LVTalarico 50 (D) · Paxton 44 (R)D+6Checked release
Texas SenateSep 25–Oct 5, 2026University of Texas/Texas Politics Project861 LVTalarico 50 (D) · Paxton 47 (R)D+3Release found release
Texas GovernorSep 25–Oct 5, 2026University of Texas/Texas Politics Project861 LVHinojosa 49 (D) · Abbott 48 (R)D+1Release found release
Texas GovernorSep 28–Oct 5, 2026YouGov3625 LVHinojosa 48 (D) · Abbott 47 (R)D+1Checked release
TX-2Sep 29–Oct 4, 2026Impact Research
for Finnie's campaign
partisan sponsor
501 LVToth 46 (R) · Finnie 37 (D)R+9Not checked yet release
Texas SenateSep 21–30, 2026New York Times/Siena College615 LVTalarico 51 (D) · Paxton 45 (R)D+6Checked release
Texas GovernorSep 21–30, 2026New York Times/Siena College615 LVHinojosa 49 (D) · Abbott 46 (R)D+3Checked release
Texas SenateSep 28–29, 2026Rasmussen Reports1128 LVTalarico 46 (D) · Paxton 45 (R)D+1Checked release
Texas SenateSep 18–28, 2026UMass Lowell/YouGov850 LVTalarico 45 (D) · Paxton 45 (R)EvenChecked release
Texas SenateSep 24–28, 2026Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News
881 LVTalarico 51 (D) · Paxton 49 (R)D+2Release found release
Texas SenateSep 20–28, 2026Guidant Polling and Strategy
for Public First Action
800 LVTalarico 47 (D) · Paxton 44 (R)D+3Checked release
Texas GovernorSep 20–28, 2026Guidant Polling and Strategy
for Public First Action
800 LVAbbott 46 (R) · Hinojosa 44 (D)R+2Checked release
Texas GovernorSep 24–28, 2026Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research
for Fox News
881 LVAbbott 52 (R) · Hinojosa 47 (D)R+5Citation unreadable release
Texas GovernorSep 18–28, 2026UMass Lowell/YouGov850 LVAbbott 48 (R) · Hinojosa 44 (D)R+4Checked release

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.

Polling averages by race
RacePollsLatestSimple average
30 days to the newest poll (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Forecast
Texas Governor54Oct 28, 2026R+2 (22)R+3Texas Governor forecast
Texas Senate67Oct 28, 2026D+3 (30)D+3Texas Senate forecast
TX-232Oct 7, 2026Even (1)—TX-23 forecast
TX-354Oct 19, 2026D+1 (3)—TX-35 forecast
TX-92Oct 7, 2026R+6 (2)—TX-9 forecast
TX-344Oct 19, 2026D+7 (1)—TX-34 forecast
TX-101Sep 22, 2026R+7 (1)—TX-10 forecast
TX-21Oct 4, 2026R+9 (1)—TX-2 forecast
TX-155Oct 16, 2026D+10 (2)—TX-15 forecast
TX-282Aug 22, 2026D+11 (1)—TX-28 forecast