Michigan elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
Michigan Senate
D 79%
Abdul El-Sayed · Mike Rogers
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Governor
Michigan Governor
D 94%
Jocelyn Benson · John James
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-1 | Callie Barr · Arnett Satterla · Doc Kovaly · LaVeta Davenport · Liz Hakola · Zebulon Featherly · Jack Bergman | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MI-2 | Benjamin Ambrose · Charlotte Magoon · Richard Sills · John Moolenaar | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MI-3 | Hillary Scholten · Joe Jock · Terri DeBoer | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MI-4 | Sean McCann · Shafina Che Barnett · Bill Huizenga | R 57% | Toss-up | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MI-5 | Christian Vukasovich · Jim Bronke · Ronald A. Muszynski · Sharon Marie Renier · Tim Walberg | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MI-6 | Debbie Dingell · Clyde Shabazz · Linda Rayburn · Mike Mickevicius · Timothy A. Teagan · Heather Smiley | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MI-7 | William Lawrence · Shane Dedrick · Tom Barrett | D 62% | Lean D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MI-8 | Kristen McDonald Rivet · C. Mia Pettus · Jim Casha · Kathy Goodwin · Thomas J. Smith | D 99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MI-9 | Ray Pooley · Destiny Clayton · Jim Walkowicz · John Vlahos · Kevin Vayko · Lisa McClain | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MI-10 | Christina Hines · Andrea L. Kirby · Kwabena Nkromo · Mike Saliba · Michael Bouchard Jr. | D 50% | Toss-up | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MI-11 | Jeremy Moss · Anil Kumar · Farid Ishac · Ryan Teasdale · Ethan Baker | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MI-12 | Rashida Tlaib · Brenda K. Sanders · Gary Walkowicz · Marc Joseph Sosnowski · James Hooper | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MI-13 | Donavan McKinney · Chris Dardzinski · Raelyn Light · Simone R. Coleman · T.P. Nykoriak | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan House | 110 | 56 | 39% | 53% |
| Michigan Senate | 38 | 20 | 62% | 25% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
Michigan election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.