Florida elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
Florida Senate
R 87%
Angie Nixon · Ashley Moody
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Governor
Florida Governor
R 77%
Byron Donalds · David Jolly
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-1 | Gay Valimont · Tyler Davis · Jimmy Patronis | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-2 | Amanda Green · Austin Rogers | R 93% | Likely R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-3 | Seth Harp · Mike Klein · Kat Cammack | R 98% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-4 | LaShonda Holloway · Mike Sell · Todd Schaefer · Aaron Bean | R 96% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-5 | Rachel Grage · John Rutherford | R 98% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-6 | Eric Yonce · Andrew Parrott · Randy Fine | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-7 | Bale Dalton · Christopher Dennison · Ryan Elijah | D 71% | Lean D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-8 | Jennifer Jenkins · Mike Haridopolos | R 97% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-9 | Darren Soto · Dan Green | R 54% | Toss-up | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-10 | Maxwell Frost | One candidate on record (D) | — | No candidate forecast |
| FL-11 | James Pericola · Ralph Groves · Joe Strada | R 92% | Likely R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-12 | Kimberly Overman · Branden Scrivener · Gus Bilirakis | R 98% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-13 | Leela Gray · Tony D'Arrigo · Anna Paulina Luna | R 71% | Lean R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor · Brian Lambert · Mike Beltran | D 85% | Likely D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-15 | Robert People · Laurel Lee | R 98% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-16 | Kelly Kirschner · Mark Davis · Sydney Gruters | R 77% | Lean R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-17 | Matthew Montavon · Michael Quirk · Greg Steube | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-18 | Curtis Gibson · Deva Simmons · Scott Franklin | R 98% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-19 | Victor Arias · Seth Haskin · Jim Schwartzel | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-20 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz · Kedner Maxime · Brent Andersen | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-21 | James Martin · Alexander Cooke · Brian Mast | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya · Casey Askar | D 59% | Toss-up | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-23 | Lois Frankel · Deborah Adeimy | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-24 | Oliver Gilbert · Mayonna Te Brown | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz · Peter Jassenoff · Scott Singer | D 81% | Lean D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-26 | Nicole Locklin · Deborah Meidinger Hosey · Mario Díaz-Balart | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez · María Elvira Salazar | R 84% | Lean R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| FL-28 | Phil Ehr · Eddy Rojas · Carlos Giménez | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida House | 120 | 61 | 2% | 98% |
| Florida Senate | 20 | 21 | <1% | >99% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
Florida election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.