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Latest polls

Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).

Newest polls

All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.

Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.

Newest polls
RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMarginChecked
Florida GovernorOct 25–27, 2026St. Pete Polls
for Florida Politics
916 LVDonalds 48 (R) · Jolly 46 (D)R+2Checked release
Florida SenateOct 17–27, 2026ActiVote400 LVMoody 53 (R) · Nixon 47 (D)R+6Checked release
Florida SenateOct 25–27, 2026St. Pete Polls
for Florida Politics
916 LVMoody 49 (R) · Nixon 45 (D)R+4Checked release
FL-25Oct 26–27, 2026Public Policy Polling
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
523 LVMoskowitz 47 (D) · Singer 41 (R)D+6Not checked yet release
Florida GovernorOct 19–25, 2026New York Times/Siena College813 LVDonalds 48 (R) · Jolly 44 (D)R+4Not checked yet release
Florida SenateOct 19–25, 2026New York Times/Siena College813 LVMoody 50 (R) · Nixon 44 (D)R+6Not checked yet release
Florida GovernorOct 16–23, 2026Echelon Insights
for NetChoice
515 LVDonalds 50 (R) · Jolly 44 (D)R+6Not checked yet release
Florida SenateOct 16–23, 2026Echelon Insights
for NetChoice
515 LVMoody 51 (R) · Nixon 43 (D)R+8Not checked yet release
Florida GovernorOct 18–22, 2026Workbench Strategy800 LVJolly 48 (D) · Donalds 46 (R)D+2Citation unreadable release
Florida SenateOct 18–22, 2026Workbench Strategy
for Nixon's campaign
partisan sponsor
800 LVMoody 49 (R) · Nixon 47 (D)R+2Citation unreadable release
FL-25Oct 21–22, 2026Public Policy Polling
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
592 LVMoskowitz 47 (D) · Singer 42 (R)D+5Not checked yet release
Florida GovernorOct 18–20, 2026co/efficient1014 LVDonalds 49 (R) · Jolly 40 (D)R+9Checked release
Florida SenateOct 18–20, 2026co/efficient1014 LVMoody 48 (R) · Nixon 40 (D)R+8Checked release
Florida GovernorOct 12–19, 2026University of North Florida1471 LVDonalds 49 (R) · Jolly 47 (D)R+2Release found release
Florida GovernorOct 1–19, 2026ActiVote400 LVDonalds 52 (R) · Jolly 48 (D)R+4Checked release
Florida SenateOct 12–19, 2026University of North Florida1471 LVMoody 49 (R) · Nixon 45 (D)R+4Release found release
Florida GovernorOct 2–15, 2026Univision/YouGov825 RVDonalds 50 (R) · Jolly 42 (D)R+8Checked release
Florida SenateOct 2–15, 2026Univision/YouGov825 RVMoody 51 (R) · Nixon 42 (D)R+9Release found release
Florida SenateSep 27–Oct 15, 2026ActiVote400 LVMoody 53 (R) · Nixon 47 (D)R+6Checked release
FL-9Oct 10–15, 2026SEA Polling
for Soto's campaign
partisan sponsor
— Green 44 (R) · Soto 44 (D)EvenChecked release
FL-13Oct 14–15, 2026Public Policy Polling
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
603 LVGray 47 (D) · Luna 46 (R)D+1Checked release
FL-14Oct 12–14, 2026Emerson College
for Poll Vault
315 LVCastor 48 (D) · Beltran 43 (R)D+5Not checked yet release
Florida GovernorOct 8–11, 2026Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
for Donalds' campaign
partisan sponsor
1200 LVDonalds 49 (R) · Jolly 43 (D)R+6Checked release
Florida GovernorOct 8–10, 2026Change Research
for Freedom Project USA
920 LVJolly 47 (D) · Donalds 47 (R)EvenNot checked yet release
Florida GovernorOct 1–9, 2026Stetson University716 LVDonalds 52 (R) · Jolly 41 (D)R+11Checked release
Florida SenateOct 1–9, 2026Stetson University716 LVMoody 52 (R) · Nixon 41 (D)R+11Release found release
Florida GovernorOct 5–7, 2026St. Pete Polls
for Florida Politics
836 LVJolly 45 (D) · Donalds 45 (R)EvenChecked release
Florida SenateOct 5–7, 2026St. Pete Polls
for Florida Politics
836 LVMoody 47 (R) · Nixon 45 (D)R+2Checked release
Florida GovernorSep 28–Oct 5, 2026YouGov3813 LVDonalds 47 (R) · Jolly 45 (D)R+2Checked release
Florida SenateSep 28–Oct 5, 2026YouGov3813 LVMoody 49 (R) · Nixon 44 (D)R+5Checked release
Florida GovernorSep 28–Oct 4, 2026Targoz Market Research
for James Madison Institute
849 LVDonalds 52 (R) · Jolly 42 (D)R+10Release found release
Florida SenateSep 28–Oct 4, 2026Targoz Market Research
for James Madison Institute
847 LVMoody 52 (R) · Nixon 42 (D)R+10Release found release
FL-16Oct 1–2, 2026Public Policy Polling530 RVGruters 43 (R) · Kirschner 39 (D)R+4Citation unreadable release
Florida GovernorSep 28–Oct 1, 2026Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy625 LVDonalds 48 (R) · Jolly 41 (D)R+7Checked release
Florida SenateSep 28–Oct 1, 2026Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy625 LVMoody 50 (R) · Nixon 40 (D)R+10Checked release
Florida GovernorSep 25–27, 2026Change Research
for Freedom Project USA
1063 LVJolly 48 (D) · Donalds 46 (R)D+2Checked release
Florida SenateSep 25–27, 2026Change Research
for Freedom Project USA
1063 LVMoody 48 (R) · Nixon 47 (D)R+1Checked release
FL-21Sep 21–25, 2026Upswing Research
for Martin's campaign
partisan sponsor
402 LVMast 49 (R) · Martin 38 (D)R+11Not checked yet release
Florida GovernorSep 14–21, 2026Stetson University830 LVDonalds 51 (R) · Jolly 39 (D)R+12Checked release
Florida SenateSep 20–21, 2026InsiderAdvantage600 LVMoody 49 (R) · Nixon 42 (D)R+7Checked release
Florida SenateSep 14–21, 2026Stetson University830 LVMoody 51 (R) · Nixon 40 (D)R+11Checked release
Florida GovernorSep 15–17, 2026St. Pete Polls913 LVDonalds 44 (R) · Jolly 43 (D)R+1Checked release
Florida SenateSep 15–17, 2026St. Pete Polls913 LVMoody 45 (R) · Nixon 45 (D)EvenChecked release
FL-27Sep 8–13, 2026Tulchin Researchpartisan sponsor600 LVSalazar 47 (R) · Rodriguez 46 (D)R+1No citation
Florida SenateSep 8–10, 2026Quantus Insights733 LVMoody 50 (R) · Nixon 43 (D)R+7Checked release
Florida GovernorSep 7–9, 2026Change Research
for Freedom Project USA
1107 LVJolly 47 (D) · Donalds 44 (R)D+3Not checked yet release
Florida SenateSep 7–9, 2026Change Research
for Freedom Project USA
1107 LVMoody 47 (R) · Nixon 47 (D)EvenChecked release
FL-22Aug 24–31, 2026Impact Research
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
— Dandiya 46 (D) · Askar 44 (R)D+2Checked release
FL-9Aug 24–30, 2026SEA Pollingpartisan sponsor400 RVGreen 41 (R) · Soto 41 (D)EvenChecked release
FL-27Aug 25–30, 2026Bendixen & Amandi International
for Eliott Rodriguez campaign
campaign internal
600 LVSalazar 45 (R) · Rodriguez 45 (D)EvenRelease found release
FL-16Aug 25–29, 2026SEA Polling
for Kelly Kirschner for Congress
campaign internal
400 LVKirschner 40 (D) · Gruters 39 (R)D+1Checked release
FL-13Aug 25–27, 2026Hart Researchpartisan sponsor500 LVGray 51 (D) · Luna 46 (R)D+5Checked release
Florida GovernorAug 10–13, 2026Hart Research
for Democratic Governors Association
partisan sponsor
600 LVJolly 46 (D) · Donalds 45 (R)D+1Checked release
FL-13Aug 4–6, 2026GQR Researchpartisan sponsor500 LVLuna 47 (R) · Gray 44 (D)R+3Checked release
FL-13Aug 4–6, 2026Fabrizio, Lee & Associatespartisan sponsor400 LVLuna 49 (R) · Gray 41 (D)R+8Citation unreadable release
Florida GovernorJul 20–26, 2026Targoz Market Research
for James Madison Institute
1026 LVDonalds 45 (R) · Jolly 38 (D)R+7Checked
FL-8Jul 17–18, 2026Public Policy Pollingpartisan sponsor633 RVHaridopolos 44 (R) · Jenkins 35 (D)R+9Release found release
Florida GovernorJul 8–17, 2026University of North Florida848 LVDonalds 46 (R) · Jolly 41 (D)R+5Checked release
Florida SenateJul 8–17, 2026University of North Florida848 LVMoody 50 (R) · Nixon 42 (D)R+8Checked release
FL-14Jul 14–15, 2026St. Pete Polls469 LVCastor 46 (D) · Beltran 38 (R)D+8No citation

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.

Polling averages by race
RacePollsLatestSimple average
30 days to the newest poll (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Forecast
Florida Governor34Oct 27, 2026R+4 (16)R+4Florida Governor forecast
Florida Senate24Oct 27, 2026R+6 (15)R+6Florida Senate forecast
FL-92Oct 15, 2026Even (1)—FL-9 forecast
FL-273Sep 13, 2026R+0 (2)—FL-27 forecast
FL-135Oct 15, 2026D+1 (1)—FL-13 forecast
FL-221Aug 31, 2026D+2 (1)—FL-22 forecast
FL-162Oct 2, 2026R+4 (1)—FL-16 forecast
FL-142Oct 14, 2026D+5 (1)—FL-14 forecast
FL-253Oct 27, 2026D+6 (2)—FL-25 forecast
FL-81Jul 18, 2026R+9 (1)—FL-8 forecast
FL-211Sep 25, 2026R+11 (1)—FL-21 forecast