Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted averages from the nowcasts as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor | Oct 25–27, 2026 | St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 916 LV | Donalds 48 (R) · Jolly 46 (D) | R+2 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Oct 17–27, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Moody 53 (R) · Nixon 47 (D) | R+6 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Oct 25–27, 2026 | St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 916 LV | Moody 49 (R) · Nixon 45 (D) | R+4 | Checked release |
| FL-25 | Oct 26–27, 2026 | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 523 LV | Moskowitz 47 (D) · Singer 41 (R) | D+6 | Not checked yet release |
| Florida Governor | Oct 19–25, 2026 | New York Times/Siena College | 813 LV | Donalds 48 (R) · Jolly 44 (D) | R+4 | Not checked yet release |
| Florida Senate | Oct 19–25, 2026 | New York Times/Siena College | 813 LV | Moody 50 (R) · Nixon 44 (D) | R+6 | Not checked yet release |
| Florida Governor | Oct 16–23, 2026 | Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 515 LV | Donalds 50 (R) · Jolly 44 (D) | R+6 | Not checked yet release |
| Florida Senate | Oct 16–23, 2026 | Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 515 LV | Moody 51 (R) · Nixon 43 (D) | R+8 | Not checked yet release |
| Florida Governor | Oct 18–22, 2026 | Workbench Strategy | 800 LV | Jolly 48 (D) · Donalds 46 (R) | D+2 | Citation unreadable release |
| Florida Senate | Oct 18–22, 2026 | Workbench Strategy for Nixon's campaign partisan sponsor | 800 LV | Moody 49 (R) · Nixon 47 (D) | R+2 | Citation unreadable release |
| FL-25 | Oct 21–22, 2026 | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 592 LV | Moskowitz 47 (D) · Singer 42 (R) | D+5 | Not checked yet release |
| Florida Governor | Oct 18–20, 2026 | co/efficient | 1014 LV | Donalds 49 (R) · Jolly 40 (D) | R+9 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Oct 18–20, 2026 | co/efficient | 1014 LV | Moody 48 (R) · Nixon 40 (D) | R+8 | Checked release |
| Florida Governor | Oct 12–19, 2026 | University of North Florida | 1471 LV | Donalds 49 (R) · Jolly 47 (D) | R+2 | Release found release |
| Florida Governor | Oct 1–19, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Donalds 52 (R) · Jolly 48 (D) | R+4 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Oct 12–19, 2026 | University of North Florida | 1471 LV | Moody 49 (R) · Nixon 45 (D) | R+4 | Release found release |
| Florida Governor | Oct 2–15, 2026 | Univision/YouGov | 825 RV | Donalds 50 (R) · Jolly 42 (D) | R+8 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Oct 2–15, 2026 | Univision/YouGov | 825 RV | Moody 51 (R) · Nixon 42 (D) | R+9 | Release found release |
| Florida Senate | Sep 27–Oct 15, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Moody 53 (R) · Nixon 47 (D) | R+6 | Checked release |
| FL-9 | Oct 10–15, 2026 | SEA Polling for Soto's campaign partisan sponsor | — | Green 44 (R) · Soto 44 (D) | Even | Checked release |
| FL-13 | Oct 14–15, 2026 | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 603 LV | Gray 47 (D) · Luna 46 (R) | D+1 | Checked release |
| FL-14 | Oct 12–14, 2026 | Emerson College for Poll Vault | 315 LV | Castor 48 (D) · Beltran 43 (R) | D+5 | Not checked yet release |
| Florida Governor | Oct 8–11, 2026 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for Donalds' campaign partisan sponsor | 1200 LV | Donalds 49 (R) · Jolly 43 (D) | R+6 | Checked release |
| Florida Governor | Oct 8–10, 2026 | Change Research for Freedom Project USA | 920 LV | Jolly 47 (D) · Donalds 47 (R) | Even | Not checked yet release |
| Florida Governor | Oct 1–9, 2026 | Stetson University | 716 LV | Donalds 52 (R) · Jolly 41 (D) | R+11 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Oct 1–9, 2026 | Stetson University | 716 LV | Moody 52 (R) · Nixon 41 (D) | R+11 | Release found release |
| Florida Governor | Oct 5–7, 2026 | St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 836 LV | Jolly 45 (D) · Donalds 45 (R) | Even | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Oct 5–7, 2026 | St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 836 LV | Moody 47 (R) · Nixon 45 (D) | R+2 | Checked release |
| Florida Governor | Sep 28–Oct 5, 2026 | YouGov | 3813 LV | Donalds 47 (R) · Jolly 45 (D) | R+2 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Sep 28–Oct 5, 2026 | YouGov | 3813 LV | Moody 49 (R) · Nixon 44 (D) | R+5 | Checked release |
| Florida Governor | Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026 | Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute | 849 LV | Donalds 52 (R) · Jolly 42 (D) | R+10 | Release found release |
| Florida Senate | Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026 | Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute | 847 LV | Moody 52 (R) · Nixon 42 (D) | R+10 | Release found release |
| FL-16 | Oct 1–2, 2026 | Public Policy Polling | 530 RV | Gruters 43 (R) · Kirschner 39 (D) | R+4 | Citation unreadable release |
| Florida Governor | Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | Donalds 48 (R) · Jolly 41 (D) | R+7 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Sep 28–Oct 1, 2026 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | Moody 50 (R) · Nixon 40 (D) | R+10 | Checked release |
| Florida Governor | Sep 25–27, 2026 | Change Research for Freedom Project USA | 1063 LV | Jolly 48 (D) · Donalds 46 (R) | D+2 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Sep 25–27, 2026 | Change Research for Freedom Project USA | 1063 LV | Moody 48 (R) · Nixon 47 (D) | R+1 | Checked release |
| FL-21 | Sep 21–25, 2026 | Upswing Research for Martin's campaign partisan sponsor | 402 LV | Mast 49 (R) · Martin 38 (D) | R+11 | Not checked yet release |
| Florida Governor | Sep 14–21, 2026 | Stetson University | 830 LV | Donalds 51 (R) · Jolly 39 (D) | R+12 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Sep 20–21, 2026 | InsiderAdvantage | 600 LV | Moody 49 (R) · Nixon 42 (D) | R+7 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Sep 14–21, 2026 | Stetson University | 830 LV | Moody 51 (R) · Nixon 40 (D) | R+11 | Checked release |
| Florida Governor | Sep 15–17, 2026 | St. Pete Polls | 913 LV | Donalds 44 (R) · Jolly 43 (D) | R+1 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Sep 15–17, 2026 | St. Pete Polls | 913 LV | Moody 45 (R) · Nixon 45 (D) | Even | Checked release |
| FL-27 | Sep 8–13, 2026 | Tulchin Researchpartisan sponsor | 600 LV | Salazar 47 (R) · Rodriguez 46 (D) | R+1 | No citation |
| Florida Senate | Sep 8–10, 2026 | Quantus Insights | 733 LV | Moody 50 (R) · Nixon 43 (D) | R+7 | Checked release |
| Florida Governor | Sep 7–9, 2026 | Change Research for Freedom Project USA | 1107 LV | Jolly 47 (D) · Donalds 44 (R) | D+3 | Not checked yet release |
| Florida Senate | Sep 7–9, 2026 | Change Research for Freedom Project USA | 1107 LV | Moody 47 (R) · Nixon 47 (D) | Even | Checked release |
| FL-22 | Aug 24–31, 2026 | Impact Research for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | — | Dandiya 46 (D) · Askar 44 (R) | D+2 | Checked release |
| FL-9 | Aug 24–30, 2026 | SEA Pollingpartisan sponsor | 400 RV | Green 41 (R) · Soto 41 (D) | Even | Checked release |
| FL-27 | Aug 25–30, 2026 | Bendixen & Amandi International for Eliott Rodriguez campaign campaign internal | 600 LV | Salazar 45 (R) · Rodriguez 45 (D) | Even | Release found release |
| FL-16 | Aug 25–29, 2026 | SEA Polling for Kelly Kirschner for Congress campaign internal | 400 LV | Kirschner 40 (D) · Gruters 39 (R) | D+1 | Checked release |
| FL-13 | Aug 25–27, 2026 | Hart Researchpartisan sponsor | 500 LV | Gray 51 (D) · Luna 46 (R) | D+5 | Checked release |
| Florida Governor | Aug 10–13, 2026 | Hart Research for Democratic Governors Association partisan sponsor | 600 LV | Jolly 46 (D) · Donalds 45 (R) | D+1 | Checked release |
| FL-13 | Aug 4–6, 2026 | GQR Researchpartisan sponsor | 500 LV | Luna 47 (R) · Gray 44 (D) | R+3 | Checked release |
| FL-13 | Aug 4–6, 2026 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associatespartisan sponsor | 400 LV | Luna 49 (R) · Gray 41 (D) | R+8 | Citation unreadable release |
| Florida Governor | Jul 20–26, 2026 | Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute | 1026 LV | Donalds 45 (R) · Jolly 38 (D) | R+7 | Checked |
| FL-8 | Jul 17–18, 2026 | Public Policy Pollingpartisan sponsor | 633 RV | Haridopolos 44 (R) · Jenkins 35 (D) | R+9 | Release found release |
| Florida Governor | Jul 8–17, 2026 | University of North Florida | 848 LV | Donalds 46 (R) · Jolly 41 (D) | R+5 | Checked release |
| Florida Senate | Jul 8–17, 2026 | University of North Florida | 848 LV | Moody 50 (R) · Nixon 42 (D) | R+8 | Checked release |
| FL-14 | Jul 14–15, 2026 | St. Pete Polls | 469 LV | Castor 46 (D) · Beltran 38 (R) | D+8 | No citation |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor | 34 | Oct 27, 2026 | R+4 (16) | R+4 | Florida Governor forecast |
| Florida Senate | 24 | Oct 27, 2026 | R+6 (15) | R+6 | Florida Senate forecast |
| FL-9 | 2 | Oct 15, 2026 | Even (1) | — | FL-9 forecast |
| FL-27 | 3 | Sep 13, 2026 | R+0 (2) | — | FL-27 forecast |
| FL-13 | 5 | Oct 15, 2026 | D+1 (1) | — | FL-13 forecast |
| FL-22 | 1 | Aug 31, 2026 | D+2 (1) | — | FL-22 forecast |
| FL-16 | 2 | Oct 2, 2026 | R+4 (1) | — | FL-16 forecast |
| FL-14 | 2 | Oct 14, 2026 | D+5 (1) | — | FL-14 forecast |
| FL-25 | 3 | Oct 27, 2026 | D+6 (2) | — | FL-25 forecast |
| FL-8 | 1 | Jul 18, 2026 | R+9 (1) | — | FL-8 forecast |
| FL-21 | 1 | Sep 25, 2026 | R+11 (1) | — | FL-21 forecast |