Florida election questions
Questions on races and election records in this state.
Election questions
How competitive are Florida’s congressional races in 2026?
FutureBallot rates seven House districts in Florida competitive in the dated forecasts listed below. The table covers twenty-eight House districts. Districts with missing or withheld forecast evidence: zero. FutureBallot also rates zero Senate races competitive among the Senate forecasts listed.
| Contest | Highest modeled chance | Status | Evidence date |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-9 | Dan Green: 54.0% | Toss-up | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya: 59.1% | Toss-up | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-13 | Anna Paulina Luna: 71.0% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-7 | Bale Dalton: 71.4% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-16 | Sydney Gruters: 76.7% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz: 81.2% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-27 | María Elvira Salazar: 84.0% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor: 85.4% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-11 | Joe Strada: 92.5% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-2 | Austin Rogers: 93.5% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-4 | Aaron Bean: 95.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-8 | Mike Haridopolos: 96.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-12 | Gus Bilirakis: 97.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-18 | Scott Franklin: 97.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-5 | John Rutherford: 98.1% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-15 | Laurel Lee: 98.4% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-3 | Kat Cammack: 98.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-21 | Brian Mast: 98.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-26 | Mario Díaz-Balart: 99.2% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-17 | Greg Steube: 99.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-28 | Carlos Giménez: 99.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-6 | Randy Fine: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-19 | Jim Schwartzel: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-23 | Lois Frankel: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-1 | Jimmy Patronis: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-24 | Oliver Gilbert: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-20 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-10 | No candidate probability | One candidate on record | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| U.S. Senate | Ashley Moody: 87.4% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 00:40 UTC |
Ratings use the favorite’s chance rounded to a whole percent. Competitive means Lean or Toss-up, below 85%; Toss-up is below 60%.
House contests are listed from the closest modeled race outward. Assignments and unavailable forecasts follow the modeled races.
A party assignment does not necessarily mean a candidate is unopposed. Same-party, independent or minor-party candidates can still contest a seat.
Sources: All House district statuses · Rating definitions
How competitive are Florida’s U.S. House races in 2026?
FutureBallot rates seven House districts in Florida competitive in the dated forecasts listed below. The table covers twenty-eight House districts. Districts with missing or withheld forecast evidence: zero.
| Contest | Highest modeled chance | Status | Evidence date |
|---|---|---|---|
| FL-9 | Dan Green: 54.0% | Toss-up | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya: 59.1% | Toss-up | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-13 | Anna Paulina Luna: 71.0% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-7 | Bale Dalton: 71.4% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-16 | Sydney Gruters: 76.7% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz: 81.2% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-27 | María Elvira Salazar: 84.0% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor: 85.4% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-11 | Joe Strada: 92.5% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-2 | Austin Rogers: 93.5% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-4 | Aaron Bean: 95.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-8 | Mike Haridopolos: 96.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-12 | Gus Bilirakis: 97.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-18 | Scott Franklin: 97.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-5 | John Rutherford: 98.1% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-15 | Laurel Lee: 98.4% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-3 | Kat Cammack: 98.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-21 | Brian Mast: 98.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-26 | Mario Díaz-Balart: 99.2% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-17 | Greg Steube: 99.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-28 | Carlos Giménez: 99.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-6 | Randy Fine: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-19 | Jim Schwartzel: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-23 | Lois Frankel: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-1 | Jimmy Patronis: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-24 | Oliver Gilbert: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-20 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| FL-10 | No candidate probability | One candidate on record | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
Ratings use the favorite’s chance rounded to a whole percent. Competitive means Lean or Toss-up, below 85%; Toss-up is below 60%.
House contests are listed from the closest modeled race outward. Assignments and unavailable forecasts follow the modeled races.
A party assignment does not necessarily mean a candidate is unopposed. Same-party, independent or minor-party candidates can still contest a seat.
Sources: All House district statuses · Rating definitions
Which party, if any, is favored in each 2026 state legislative chamber with seats up in Florida?
FutureBallot’s state legislative forecast dated October 30, 2026, 12:45 UTC lists majority chances, marks a chamber nonpartisan, or reports unresolved probabilities for each chamber with seats up.
| Chamber | Democratic majority | Republican majority | Seats up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida House | 2.0% | 97.6% | 120 |
| Florida Senate | less than 0.1% | 99.9% | 20 |
Each chamber is a separate contest. These are not joint probabilities of controlling the legislature. A range assigns seats that cannot be forecast to each party in turn. When exact party probabilities sum to less than 100%, the remainder is the chance neither party has a majority. No party-majority probability is reported for a nonpartisan chamber.
Sources: State legislative forecasts and limitations · Florida House · Florida Senate
Where can I find Florida election dates and voting information?
Use Florida’s election office for its election calendar, ballot information and links to local voting services. Check the year and whether the date concerns a primary, general, special or runoff election.
The office link was read from USAGov on 2026-10-30. FutureBallot does not maintain a separate calendar of voting deadlines.
Sources: Florida election office — USAGov directory · USAGov official-office directory