Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Massachusetts House

Massachusetts House District 11th Worcester

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Hannah Elizabeth Kane (R)

Massachusetts House District 11th Worcester: Decided: only a Republican is runningMassachusetts House 12th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win 96%; 2024 president D+14Massachusetts House 14th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+28Massachusetts House 15th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+33Massachusetts House 16th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+20Massachusetts House 19th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+39Massachusetts House 9th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president D+13Massachusetts House District 11th Worcester: Decided: only a Republican is running16th Worcester14th Worcester9th Worcester12th Worcester11th Worcester
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 11th Worcester is safe Republican. Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 5 favour Democrats, 1 favours Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesHannah Elizabeth Kane (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberHannah Kane

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024D+24
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtMassachusetts
Median household income$140,610$101,341
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)66%47%
Median age4040
White (not Hispanic)61%68%
Black3%7%
Hispanic5%13%
Asian26%7%
Born abroad28%18%
Jobs in manufacturing14%9%
Jobs in farming or mining0%0%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.