Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Massachusetts House

Massachusetts House District 2nd Hampshire

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Homar Gomez (D)

Massachusetts House District 2nd Hampshire: Decided: only a Democrat is runningMassachusetts House 1st Franklin: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+46Massachusetts House 1st Hampshire: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+64Massachusetts House 3rd Hampshire: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+70Massachusetts House 4th Hampden: chance of a Democratic win 4%; 2024 president R+2Massachusetts House 5th Hampden: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+29Massachusetts House 7th Hampden: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+13Massachusetts House 8th Hampden: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+5Massachusetts House District 2nd Hampshire: Decided: only a Democrat is running4th Hampden1st Hampshire7th Hampden1st Franklin2nd Hampshire
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 2nd Hampshire is safe Democratic. Of its 7 neighbouring districts, 6 favour Democrats, 1 favours Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesHomar Gomez (D)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberHomar Gomez

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (D)
President 2024D+35
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtMassachusetts
Median household income$88,385$101,341
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)47%47%
Median age4640
White (not Hispanic)86%68%
Black1%7%
Hispanic7%13%
Asian3%7%
Born abroad7%18%
Jobs in manufacturing9%9%
Jobs in farming or mining1%0%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.