Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Massachusetts House

Massachusetts House District 9th Worcester

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · David Kent Muradian, Jr. (R)

Massachusetts House District 9th Worcester: Decided: only a Republican is runningMassachusetts House 10th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+11Massachusetts House 11th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president D+24Massachusetts House 16th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+20Massachusetts House 18th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+10Massachusetts House 19th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+39Massachusetts House 7th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president evenMassachusetts House 8th Middlesex: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+38Massachusetts House 8th Worcester: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+2Massachusetts House District 9th Worcester: Decided: only a Republican is running16th Worcester10th Worcester19th Worcester7th Worcester8th Middlesex18th Worcester9th Worcester
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 9th Worcester is safe Republican. Of its 8 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Democrats, 4 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesDavid Kent Muradian, Jr. (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberDave Muradian

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024D+13
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtMassachusetts
Median household income$122,173$101,341
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)46%47%
Median age4340
White (not Hispanic)82%68%
Black2%7%
Hispanic6%13%
Asian6%7%
Born abroad9%18%
Jobs in manufacturing11%9%
Jobs in farming or mining1%0%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.