Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Massachusetts House

Massachusetts House District 12th Suffolk

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Brandy Fluker Reid (D)

Massachusetts House District 12th Suffolk: Decided: only a Democrat is runningMassachusetts House 13th Suffolk: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+37Massachusetts House 14th Suffolk: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+58Massachusetts House 6th Suffolk: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+74Massachusetts House 7th Norfolk: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+45Massachusetts House District 12th Suffolk: Decided: only a Democrat is running6th Suffolk13th Suffolk7th Norfolk12th Suffolk
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 12th Suffolk is safe Democratic. Of its 4 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Democrats.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesBrandy Fluker Reid (D)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberBrandy Fluker-Reid

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (D)
President 2024D+75
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtMassachusetts
Median household income$92,175$101,341
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)35%47%
Median age4040
White (not Hispanic)18%68%
Black57%7%
Hispanic15%13%
Asian2%7%
Born abroad31%18%
Jobs in manufacturing3%9%
Jobs in farming or mining0%0%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.