North Carolina elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
North Carolina Senate
D 96%
Michael Whatley · Roy Cooper
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Governor
No 2026 governor race is listed in FutureBallot’s current coverage. Check the official election office below.
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-1 | Don Davis · Tom Bailey · Laurie Buckhout | D 86% | Likely D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-2 | Deborah Ross · Matthew Laszacs · Eugene Douglass | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-3 | Raymond Smith Jr. · Daniel Cavender · Greg Murphy | R 78% | Lean R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-4 | Valerie Foushee · Guy Meilleur · Max Ganorkar | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-5 | Chuck Hubbard · Robert Luffman · Virginia Foxx | R 93% | Likely R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-6 | Cyril Jefferson · Addison McDowell | R 96% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-7 | Kimberly Hardy · Maad Abu-Ghazalah · David Rouzer | R 94% | Likely R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-8 | Colby Watson · Bo Whitehead · Mark Harris | R 98% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-9 | Richard Ojeda · Richard Hudson | R 86% | Likely R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-10 | Ashley Bell · Steve Feldman · Pat Harrigan | R 97% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-11 | Jamie Ager · Travis Groo · Jennifer Balkcom | D 88% | Likely D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-12 | Alma Adams · Jack Codiga | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-13 | Paul Barringer · Steven Swinton · Brad Knott | R 93% | Likely R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NC-14 | LaKesha Womack · Tim Moore | R 94% | Likely R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina House | 120 | 61 | 12% | 86% |
| North Carolina Senate | 50 | 26 | 5% | 91% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
North Carolina election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.