Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › North Carolina House

North Carolina House District 92

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Terry Brown (D)

North Carolina House District 92: Decided: only a Democrat is runningNorth Carolina House 101: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+38North Carolina House 103: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+15North Carolina House 107: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+60North Carolina House 109: chance of a Democratic win 5%; 2024 president R+15North Carolina House 88: chance of a Democratic win 99%; 2024 president D+38South Carolina House 48: chance of a Democratic win 5%; 2024 president R+24South Carolina House 66: chance of a Democratic win 7%; 2024 president R+13North Carolina House District 92: Decided: only a Democrat is running88103107SC 4810110992
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 92 is safe Democratic. Of its 7 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Democrats, 3 favour Republicans. 2 of them are across the state line.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesTerry Brown (D)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberTerry Brown

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (D)
President 2024D+39
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtNorth Carolina
Median household income$92,759$69,904
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)45%35%
Median age3439
White (not Hispanic)29%61%
Black35%20%
Hispanic21%11%
Asian8%3%
Born abroad21%9%
Jobs in manufacturing10%12%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.