Minnesota elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
Minnesota Senate
D 91%
Michele Tafoya · Peggy Flanagan
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Governor
Minnesota Governor
D 97%
Amy Klobuchar · Lisa Demuth
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN-1 | Jake Johnson · Brad Finstad | R 72% | Lean R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MN-2 | Matt Little · Eric Pratt | D 93% | Likely D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MN-3 | Kelly Morrison · Tyler Bass | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MN-4 | Betty McCollum · Paul Wikstrom | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MN-5 | Ilhan Omar · DeVelle L. Jackson · John Nagel | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MN-6 | Doug Chapin · Tom Emmer | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MN-7 | Erik Osberg · Michelle Fischbach | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| MN-8 | Trina Swanson · Pete Stauber | R 96% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota House | 134 | 68 | 72% | 22% |
| Minnesota Senate | 67 | 34 | 80% | 20% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
Minnesota election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.