State legislatures › Washington Senate
Washington Senate District 31
2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
15% chance of a Democratic win · Phil Fortunato (R), Tamara Stramel (D)
District 31 leans Republican. Of its 7 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Democrats, 3 favour Republicans.
| Status | Forecast (lines redrawn; start rebuilt from 2024 votes) |
|---|---|
| Chance of a Democratic win | 15% |
| Likely margin (80% range) | R+35 to D+4, middle R+16 |
| Candidates | Phil Fortunato (R), Tamara Stramel (D) |
| Candidate list from | wikipedia |
| Current member | Phil Fortunato |
| Lines | redrawn since the last election; Census figures below are on the earlier lines |
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.