State legislatures › Washington Senate
Washington Senate District 46
2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC
97% chance of a Democratic win · Sandra Stephens (R), Javier Valdez (D)
District 46 is safe Democratic. Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 6 favour Democrats.
| Status | Forecast |
|---|---|
| Chance of a Democratic win | 97% |
| Likely margin (80% range) | D+14 to D+60, middle D+37 |
| Candidates | Sandra Stephens (R), Javier Valdez (D) |
| Candidate list from | wikipedia |
| Current member | Javier Valdez |
How it has voted
On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.
Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.