FutureBallot

Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Menu · State legislatures
Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Washington Senate

Washington Senate District 8

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

No Democrat running: counted Republican · Gabe Galbraith (R), Nikki Torres (R)

Washington Senate District 8: No Democrat running: counted RepublicanWashington Senate 14: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+16Washington Senate 15: chance of a Democratic win <1%Washington Senate 16: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+24Washington Senate District 8: No Democrat running: counted Republican1516148
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 8 is safe Republican. Of its 3 neighbouring districts, 3 favour Republicans.

StatusNo Democrat running: counted Republican
CandidatesGabe Galbraith (R), Nikki Torres (R)
Candidate list fromwikipedia
Current memberMatt Boehnke
Linesredrawn since the last election; Census figures below are on the earlier lines

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.