FutureBallot

Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Menu · State legislatures
Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Washington Senate

Washington Senate District 41

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat)

Washington Senate District 41: Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat)Washington Senate 11: not up in 2026 (held by democrat)Washington Senate 37: chance of a Democratic win >99%Washington Senate 43: chance of a Democratic win >99%Washington Senate 45: chance of a Democratic win >99%Washington Senate 48: chance of a Democratic win >99%Washington Senate 5: not up in 2026 (held by democrat)Washington Senate District 41: Not up in 2026 (held by Democrat)4337481145541
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 41 is not up in 2026 (held by a Democrat). Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 6 favour Democrats.

StatusNot up in 2026 (held by Democrat)
Current memberLisa Wellman

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024D+38
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.