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Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

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Washington Senate District 15

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Jeremie Dufault (R)

Washington Senate District 15: Decided: only a Republican is runningWashington Senate 13: chance of a Democratic win <1%Washington Senate 14: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+16Washington Senate 16: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+24Washington Senate 2: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+8Washington Senate 20: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+28Washington Senate 31: chance of a Democratic win 15%Washington Senate 8: chance of a Democratic win <1%Washington Senate District 15: Decided: only a Republican is running83122016141315
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 15 is safe Republican. Of its 7 neighbouring districts, 7 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesJeremie Dufault (R)
Candidate list fromwikipedia
Current memberNikki Torres
Linesredrawn since the last election; Census figures below are on the earlier lines

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.