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Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Washington Senate

Washington Senate District 13

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Alex Ybarra (R)

Washington Senate District 13: Decided: only a Republican is runningWashington Senate 12: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president D+7Washington Senate 15: chance of a Democratic win <1%Washington Senate 16: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+24Washington Senate 5: not up in 2026 (held by democrat)Washington Senate 7: chance of a Democratic win <1%Washington Senate 9: not up in 2026 (held by republican); 2024 president R+17Washington Senate District 13: Decided: only a Republican is running51516129713
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 13 is safe Republican. Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 1 favours Democrats, 5 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesAlex Ybarra (R)
Candidate list fromwikipedia
Current memberJudy Warnick
Linesredrawn since the last election; Census figures below are on the earlier lines

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.