Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › New York Assembly

New York Assembly District 56

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Eon Huntley (D)

New York Assembly District 56: Decided: only a Democrat is runningNew York Assembly 43: chance of a Democratic win 99%; 2024 president D+68New York Assembly 50: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+47New York Assembly 53: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+60New York Assembly 54: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+54New York Assembly 55: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+83New York Assembly 57: chance of a Democratic win 99%; 2024 president D+83New York Assembly District 56: Decided: only a Democrat is running43575554535056
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 56 is safe Democratic. Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 6 favour Democrats.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesEon Huntley (D)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberStefani Zinerman

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (D)
Governor 2022D+87
Legislature 2024uncontested (D)
President 2024D+83
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtNew York
Median household income$73,201$84,578
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)42%40%
Median age3440
White (not Hispanic)19%53%
Black50%14%
Hispanic20%20%
Asian4%9%
Born abroad21%23%
Jobs in manufacturing3%6%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.