New York elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
No 2026 U.S. Senate race is listed in FutureBallot’s current coverage. Check the official election office below.
Governor
New York Governor
D 99%
Bruce Blakeman · Kathy Hochul
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY-1 | Chris Gallant · Nick LaLota | R 86% | Likely R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-2 | Patrick Halpin · Andrew Garbarino | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-3 | Tom Suozzi · Mike LiPetri | D 97% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-4 | Laura Gillen · Blay Tarnoff · Jeanine Driscoll | D 98% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-5 | Gregory Meeks · George Marsh | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-6 | Grace Meng · Joseph Chou | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-7 | Claire Valdez · Priscilla Ghaznavi · Melvin Rivera | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-8 | Hakeem Jeffries · Lewis Mizrahi | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-9 | Yvette Clarke · Joel Anabilah-Azumah | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-10 | Brad Lander · Jennifer Moore | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-11 | Michael DeCillis · Nicole Malliotakis | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-12 | Micah Lasher · Karen Ortiz · Wilneida Negron · Caroline Shinkle | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-13 | Darializa Avila Chevalier · Jomo Williams | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-14 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Diamant Hysenaj | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-15 | Ritchie Torres · Andre Easton · Gonzalo Duran · Jose Vega · Stylo Sapaskis | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-16 | George Latimer · Joseph Cinquemani | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-17 | Cait Conley · Mike Lawler | R 51% | Toss-up | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-18 | Pat Ryan · Jacqueline Auringer | D 99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-19 | Josh Riley · Peter Oberacker | D 99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-20 | Paul Tonko · Ralph Ambrosio | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-21 | Blake Gendebien · Anthony Constantino | R 74% | Lean R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-22 | John Mannion · Kailee Buller | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-23 | Aaron Gies · Nick Langworthy | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-24 | Alissa Ellman · Claudia Tenney | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-25 | Joseph Morelle · Virginia McIntyre | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| NY-26 | Tim Kennedy · Dennis Hannon | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Assembly | 150 | 76 | >99% | <1% |
| New York Senate | 63 | 32 | >99% | <1% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
New York election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.