Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Missouri House

Missouri House District 150

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Cameron Bunting Parker (R)

Missouri House District 150: Decided: only a Republican is runningArkansas House 1: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+67Arkansas House 33: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+62Arkansas House 34: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+12Missouri House 149: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+50Missouri House 151: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+73Missouri House 152: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+62Missouri House 153: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+73Tennessee House 77: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+63Missouri House District 150: Decided: only a Republican is running152AR 33TN 77149151AR 1153150
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 150 is safe Republican. Of its 8 neighbouring districts, 8 favour Republicans. 4 of them are across the state line.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesCameron Bunting Parker (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberCameron Parker

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (R)
Legislature 2024R+64
President 2024R+66
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtMissouri
Median household income$47,238$68,920
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)13%32%
Median age4139
White (not Hispanic)78%77%
Black8%11%
Hispanic6%5%
Asian0%2%
Born abroad2%4%
Jobs in manufacturing16%11%
Jobs in farming or mining8%2%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.