Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Maine House

Maine House District 58

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

No Democrat running: counted Republican · Dexter Bridges Jr. (R), Sharon Frost (independent)

Maine House District 58: No Democrat running: counted RepublicanMaine House 55: chance of a Democratic win 71%; 2024 president D+6Maine House 57: chance of a Democratic win 99%; 2024 president D+3Maine House 61: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+19Maine House 66: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+12Maine House 74: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+20Maine House 75: chance of a Democratic win 63%; 2024 president D+1Maine House 76: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+17Maine House 91: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+20Maine House District 58: No Democrat running: counted Republican555761757666917458
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 58 is safe Republican. Of its 8 neighbouring districts, 2 favour Democrats, 5 favour Republicans, 1 is competitive.

StatusNo Democrat running: counted Republican
CandidatesDexter Bridges Jr. (R), Sharon Frost (independent)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberSharon Frost

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022R+6
Governor 2022R+3
Legislature 2024no two-party contest; won by Sharon C Frost (independent or nonpartisan)
President 2024R+9
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtMaine
Median household income$72,965$71,773
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)39%35%
Median age4845
White (not Hispanic)94%91%
Black0%2%
Hispanic2%2%
Asian0%1%
Born abroad2%4%
Jobs in manufacturing9%9%
Jobs in farming or mining2%2%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.