Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Maine House

Maine House District 144

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

No Democrat running: counted Republican · Corinna Cole (independent), Karen Gerrish (R)

Maine House District 144: No Democrat running: counted RepublicanMaine House 141: chance of a Democratic win 62%; 2024 president R+6Maine House 148: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+7New Hampshire House Carroll 4: chance of a Democratic win 13%; 2024 president R+20New Hampshire House Carroll 8: chance of a Democratic win 16%; 2024 president R+13New Hampshire House Strafford 19: chance of a Democratic win 53%; 2024 president R+2New Hampshire House Strafford 2: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+16New Hampshire House Strafford 5: chance of a Democratic win 46%; 2024 president D+1Maine House District 144: No Democrat running: counted RepublicanNH Strafford 19NH Strafford 2148141NH Carroll 8144
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 144 is safe Republican. Of its 7 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Republicans, 3 are competitive. 5 of them are across the state line.

StatusNo Democrat running: counted Republican
CandidatesCorinna Cole (independent), Karen Gerrish (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberJeff Adams

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022R+24
Governor 2022R+20
Legislature 2024R+33
President 2024R+29
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtMaine
Median household income$93,709$71,773
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)18%35%
Median age4245
White (not Hispanic)92%91%
Black0%2%
Hispanic0%2%
Asian1%1%
Born abroad1%4%
Jobs in manufacturing13%9%
Jobs in farming or mining0%2%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.