Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Maine House

Maine House District 87

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · David Boyer Jr. (R)

Maine House District 87: Decided: only a Republican is runningMaine House 104: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+3Maine House 80: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+24Maine House 86: chance of a Democratic win 28%; 2024 president R+2Maine House 88: chance of a Democratic win 12%Maine House 90: chance of a Democratic win 50%; 2024 president D+3Maine House District 87: Decided: only a Republican is running8890104868087
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 87 is safe Republican. Of its 5 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Republicans, 1 is competitive.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesDavid Boyer Jr. (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberDavid Boyer

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022no two-party contest; won by David W Boyer (Republican)
Governor 2022R+12
Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+16
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtMaine
Median household income$71,490$71,773
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)25%35%
Median age3945
White (not Hispanic)90%91%
Black2%2%
Hispanic1%2%
Asian1%1%
Born abroad1%4%
Jobs in manufacturing13%9%
Jobs in farming or mining3%2%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.