Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Connecticut House

Connecticut House District 7

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Joshua Malik Hall (D)

Connecticut House District 7: Decided: only a Democrat is runningConnecticut House 1: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+75Connecticut House 15: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+68Connecticut House 3: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+52Connecticut House 4: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+62Connecticut House 5: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+60Connecticut House District 7: Decided: only a Democrat is running3145157
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 7 is safe Democratic. Of its 5 neighbouring districts, 5 favour Democrats.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesJoshua Malik Hall (D)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)
Current memberJoshua Hall

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (D)
Governor 2022D+87
Legislature 2024uncontested (D)
President 2024D+82
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtConnecticut
Median household income$40,211$93,760
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)12%42%
Median age3141
White (not Hispanic)10%63%
Black58%10%
Hispanic27%18%
Asian1%5%
Born abroad21%15%
Jobs in manufacturing5%11%
Jobs in farming or mining0%0%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.