California elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
No 2026 U.S. Senate race is listed in FutureBallot’s current coverage. Check the official election office below.
Governor
California Governor
D >99%
Steve Hilton · Xavier Becerra
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: party counted directly, including same-party contests · Gray: forecast withheld
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-1 | Mike McGuire · James Gallagher | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-2 | Jared Huffman · Robin Littau | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-3 | Ami Bera · Robb Tucker | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-4 | Eric Jones · Mike Thompson | Same-party contest (D) | — | No candidate forecast |
| CA-5 | Michael Masuda · Tom McClintock | R 98% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-6 | Richard Pan · Kevin Kiley | D 87% | Likely D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-7 | Doris Matsui · Mai Vang | Same-party contest (D) | — | No candidate forecast |
| CA-8 | John Garamendi · Rudy Recile | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-9 | Josh Harder · John McBride | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-10 | Mark DeSaulnier · Jeff Frese | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-11 | Connie Chan · Scott Wiener | Same-party contest (D) | — | No candidate forecast |
| CA-12 | Jamie Joyce · Lateefah Simon | Same-party contest (D) | — | No candidate forecast |
| CA-13 | Adam Gray · Kevin Lincoln | D 98% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-14 | Aisha Wahab · Melissa Hernandez | Same-party contest (D) | — | No candidate forecast |
| CA-15 | Kevin Mullin · Charles Hoelter | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-16 | Sam Liccardo · Peter Sundin Soulé | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-17 | Ro Khanna · Ritesh Tandon | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-18 | Zoe Lofgren · Shane Lewis | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-19 | Jimmy Panetta · Peter Verbica | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-20 | Sandra Van Scotter · Vince Fong | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-21 | Jim Costa · Kyle Kirkland | D 99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-22 | Randy Villegas · David Valadao | R 54% | Toss-up | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-23 | Tessa Lynn Hodge · Jay Obernolte | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-24 | Salud Carbajal · Bob Smith | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-25 | Raul Ruiz · Joe Males | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-26 | Jacqui Irwin · Sam Gallucci | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-27 | George Whitesides · Jason Gibbs | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-28 | Judy Chu · April Verlato | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-29 | Angélica María Dueñas · Luz Rivas | Same-party contest (D) | — | No candidate forecast |
| CA-30 | Laura Friedman · Scott Meyers | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-31 | Gil Cisneros · Eric Ching | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-32 | Brad Sherman · Larry Thompson | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-33 | Pete Aguilar · Stephanie Vargas | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-34 | Angela Gonzales-Torres · Jimmy Gomez | Same-party contest (D) | — | No candidate forecast |
| CA-35 | Norma Torres · Mike Cargile | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-36 | Ted Lieu · Houston Brignano | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-37 | Samantha Mota · Sydney Kamlager-Dove | Same-party contest (D) | — | No candidate forecast |
| CA-38 | Hilda Solis · Pedro Casas | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-39 | Mark Takano · Steve Manos | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-40 | Ken Calvert · Young Kim | Same-party contest (R) | — | No candidate forecast |
| CA-41 | Linda Sánchez · Mitch Clemmons | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-42 | Robert Garcia · Brian Burley | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-43 | Maxine Waters · Cristian Morales | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-44 | Nanette Barragán · Genevieve Angel | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-45 | Derek Tran · Chuong Vo | D 98% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-46 | Lou Correa · David Pan | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-47 | Dave Min · Jenny Le Roux | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-48 | Marni von Wilpert · Jim Desmond | D 85% | Likely D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-49 | Mike Levin · Armen Kurdian | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-50 | Scott Peters · Steve Cohen | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-51 | Sara Jacobs · Ricardo Cabrera | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| CA-52 | Juan Vargas · Jeff Belle | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Assembly | 80 | 41 | >99% | <1% |
| California Senate | 20 | 21 | >99% | <1% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
California election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.