California election questions
Questions on races and election records in this state.
Election questions
How competitive are California’s congressional races in 2026?
FutureBallot rates one House district in California competitive in the dated forecasts listed below. The table covers fifty-two House districts. Districts with missing or withheld forecast evidence: zero.
| Contest | Highest modeled chance | Status | Evidence date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-22 | David Valadao: 54.3% | Toss-up | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-48 | Marni von Wilpert: 85.4% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-6 | Richard Pan: 86.7% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-13 | Adam Gray: 97.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-45 | Derek Tran: 98.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-5 | Tom McClintock: 98.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-23 | Jay Obernolte: 99.1% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-21 | Jim Costa: 99.4% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-25 | Raul Ruiz: 99.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-41 | Linda Sánchez: 99.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-35 | Norma Torres: 99.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-1 | Mike McGuire: 99.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-39 | Mark Takano: 99.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-31 | Gil Cisneros: 99.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-33 | Pete Aguilar: 99.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-38 | Hilda Solis: 99.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-9 | Josh Harder: 99.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-27 | George Whitesides: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-42 | Robert Garcia: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-49 | Mike Levin: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-47 | Dave Min: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-20 | Vince Fong: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-3 | Ami Bera: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-46 | Lou Correa: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-52 | Juan Vargas: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-51 | Sara Jacobs: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-26 | Jacqui Irwin: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-50 | Scott Peters: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-2 | Jared Huffman: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-32 | Brad Sherman: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-18 | Zoe Lofgren: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-24 | Salud Carbajal: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-28 | Judy Chu: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-15 | Kevin Mullin: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-10 | Mark DeSaulnier: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-19 | Jimmy Panetta: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-30 | Laura Friedman: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-36 | Ted Lieu: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-8 | John Garamendi: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-44 | Nanette Barragán: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-16 | Sam Liccardo: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-17 | Ro Khanna: 100.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-43 | Maxine Waters: 100.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-4 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-7 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-11 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-12 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-14 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-29 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-34 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-37 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-40 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
No U.S. Senate forecast is included for this state. This alone does not establish whether a Senate election is scheduled.
Ratings use the favorite’s chance rounded to a whole percent. Competitive means Lean or Toss-up, below 85%; Toss-up is below 60%.
House contests are listed from the closest modeled race outward. Assignments and unavailable forecasts follow the modeled races.
A party assignment does not necessarily mean a candidate is unopposed. Same-party, independent or minor-party candidates can still contest a seat.
Sources: All House district statuses · Rating definitions
How competitive are California’s U.S. House races in 2026?
FutureBallot rates one House district in California competitive in the dated forecasts listed below. The table covers fifty-two House districts. Districts with missing or withheld forecast evidence: zero.
| Contest | Highest modeled chance | Status | Evidence date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-22 | David Valadao: 54.3% | Toss-up | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-48 | Marni von Wilpert: 85.4% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-6 | Richard Pan: 86.7% | Likely | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-13 | Adam Gray: 97.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-45 | Derek Tran: 98.3% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-5 | Tom McClintock: 98.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-23 | Jay Obernolte: 99.1% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-21 | Jim Costa: 99.4% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-25 | Raul Ruiz: 99.5% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-41 | Linda Sánchez: 99.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-35 | Norma Torres: 99.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-1 | Mike McGuire: 99.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-39 | Mark Takano: 99.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-31 | Gil Cisneros: 99.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-33 | Pete Aguilar: 99.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-38 | Hilda Solis: 99.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-9 | Josh Harder: 99.7% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-27 | George Whitesides: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-42 | Robert Garcia: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-49 | Mike Levin: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-47 | Dave Min: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-20 | Vince Fong: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-3 | Ami Bera: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-46 | Lou Correa: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-52 | Juan Vargas: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-51 | Sara Jacobs: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-26 | Jacqui Irwin: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-50 | Scott Peters: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-2 | Jared Huffman: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-32 | Brad Sherman: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-18 | Zoe Lofgren: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-24 | Salud Carbajal: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-28 | Judy Chu: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-15 | Kevin Mullin: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-10 | Mark DeSaulnier: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-19 | Jimmy Panetta: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-30 | Laura Friedman: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-36 | Ted Lieu: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-8 | John Garamendi: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-44 | Nanette Barragán: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-16 | Sam Liccardo: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-17 | Ro Khanna: 100.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-43 | Maxine Waters: 100.0% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-4 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-7 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-11 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-12 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-14 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-29 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-34 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-37 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| CA-40 | No candidate probability | Same-party contest | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
Ratings use the favorite’s chance rounded to a whole percent. Competitive means Lean or Toss-up, below 85%; Toss-up is below 60%.
House contests are listed from the closest modeled race outward. Assignments and unavailable forecasts follow the modeled races.
A party assignment does not necessarily mean a candidate is unopposed. Same-party, independent or minor-party candidates can still contest a seat.
Sources: All House district statuses · Rating definitions
Which party, if any, is favored in each 2026 state legislative chamber with seats up in California?
FutureBallot’s state legislative forecast dated October 30, 2026, 12:45 UTC lists majority chances, marks a chamber nonpartisan, or reports unresolved probabilities for each chamber with seats up.
| Chamber | Democratic majority | Republican majority | Seats up |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Assembly | 100.0% | 0.0% | 80 |
| California Senate | 100.0% | 0.0% | 20 |
Each chamber is a separate contest. These are not joint probabilities of controlling the legislature. A range assigns seats that cannot be forecast to each party in turn. When exact party probabilities sum to less than 100%, the remainder is the chance neither party has a majority. No party-majority probability is reported for a nonpartisan chamber.
Sources: State legislative forecasts and limitations · California Assembly · California Senate
Where can I find California election dates and voting information?
Use California’s election office for its election calendar, ballot information and links to local voting services. Check the year and whether the date concerns a primary, general, special or runoff election.
The office link was read from USAGov on 2026-10-30. FutureBallot does not maintain a separate calendar of voting deadlines.
Sources: California election office — USAGov directory · USAGov official-office directory