Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted average from the nowcast as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Governor | Oct 19–25, 2026 | Berkeley IGS for Los Angeles Times | 1477 LV | Becerra 61 (D) · Hilton 34 (R) | D+27 | Not checked yet release |
| California Governor | Oct 19–24, 2026 | SurveyUSA for KGTV and The San Diego Union-Tribune | 799 LV | Becerra 54 (D) · Hilton 32 (R) | D+22 | Citation unreadable release |
| CA-34 | Oct 16–24, 2026 | University of Southern California | 423 LV | Gonzales-Torres 51 (D) · Gomez 45 (D) | Gonzales-Torres+6 | Citation unreadable release |
| California Governor | Oct 21–23, 2026 | M3 Strategies | 489 LV | Becerra 59 (D) · Hilton 36 (R) | D+23 | Not checked yet release |
| California Governor | Oct 16–22, 2026 | PPIC | 1086 LV | Becerra 61 (D) · Hilton 37 (R) | D+24 | Not checked yet release |
| California Governor | Oct 17–20, 2026 | McLaughlin & Associates for California Post | 800 LV | Becerra 55 (D) · Hilton 39 (R) | D+16 | Not checked yet release |
| CA-4 | Oct 18–20, 2026 | Fulcrum Strategy Group for Jones's campaign partisan sponsor | 400 LV | Jones 53 (D) · Thompson 40 (D) | Jones+13 | Not checked yet release |
| CA-48 | Oct 17–20, 2026 | Tarrance Group for Desmond's campaign partisan sponsor | 410 LV | von Wilpert 47 (D) · Desmond 44 (R) | D+3 | Not checked yet release |
| California Governor | Oct 17–19, 2026 | Emerson College | 1000 LV | Becerra 60 (D) · Hilton 33 (R) | D+27 | Checked release |
| CA-11 | Oct 16–19, 2026 | University of Southern California | 454 LV | Wiener 51 (D) · Chan 44 (D) | Wiener+7 | Citation unreadable release |
| California Governor | Sep 24–Oct 16, 2026 | ActiVote | 400 LV | Becerra 63 (D) · Hilton 37 (R) | D+26 | Checked release |
| California Governor | Oct 9–14, 2026 | UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot/Politico | 909 LV | Becerra 55 (D) · Hilton 35 (R) | D+20 | Not checked yet release |
| CA-48 | Oct 1–7, 2026 | SurveyUSA for KGTV and The San Diego Union-Tribune | 518 LV | von Wilpert 47 (D) · Desmond 38 (R) | D+9 | Release found release |
| California Governor | Sep 24–Oct 1, 2026 | Manhattan Institute | 1000 LV | Becerra 57 (D) · Hilton 39 (R) | D+18 | Release found release |
| California Governor | Sep 15–20, 2026 | Berkeley IGS for Los Angeles Times | 4512 LV | Becerra 58 (D) · Hilton 33 (R) | D+25 | Checked release |
| California Governor | Sep 15–20, 2026 | SurveyUSA | 742 LV | Becerra 55 (D) · Hilton 33 (R) | D+22 | Checked release |
| California Governor | Sep 8–14, 2026 | UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot/Politico | 2418 RV | Becerra 48 (D) · Hilton 34 (R) | D+14 | Citation unreadable release |
| California Governor | Sep 4–10, 2026 | PPIC | 1103 LV | Becerra 60 (D) · Hilton 38 (R) | D+22 | Checked release |
| CA-6 | Sep 1–6, 2026 | The Bullfinch Group for Independent Leadership Council partisan sponsor | 927 LV | Pan 37 (D) · Kiley 37 (I) | Even | Checked release |
| CA-34 | Sep 1–5, 2026 | Upswing Research for Guardrails Alliance partisan sponsor | 403 LV | Gonzales-Torres 41 (D) · Gomez 38 (D) | Gonzales-Torres+3 | Checked release |
| CA-48 | Aug 27–Sep 1, 2026 | SurveyUSA for KGTV and The San Diego Union-Tribune | 522 LV | von Wilpert 45 (D) · Desmond 42 (R) | D+3 | Citation unreadable release |
| CA-7 | Aug 18–21, 2026 | Data for Progress for Justice Democrats partisan sponsor | 651 LV | Vang 32 (D) · Matsui 28 (D) | Vang+4 | Not checked yet release |
| CA-40 | Aug 17–20, 2026 | Public Opinion Strategies for Kim's campaign partisan sponsor | 400 LV | Calvert 35 (R) · Kim 34 (R) | Calvert+1 | Checked release |
| California Governor | Aug 3–9, 2026 | Berkeley IGS for Los Angeles Times | 2310 LV | Becerra 55 (D) · Hilton 37 (R) | D+18 | Checked release |
| CA-11 | Jul 14–19, 2026 | Lake Research Partners for Chan's campaign partisan sponsor | — | Wiener 45 (D) · Chan 40 (D) | Wiener+5 | Not checked yet release |
| CA-6 | Jul 13–16, 2026 | The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center | 741 LV | Pan 39 (D) · Kiley 35 (I) | Pan+4 | Citation unreadable release |
| CA-48 | Jul 9–14, 2026 | Lake Research Partners for von Wilpert's campaign partisan sponsor | 500 LV | von Wilpert 48 (D) · Desmond 46 (R) | D+2 | Checked release |
| CA-40 | Jul 8–12, 2026 | American Viewpoint for Kim's campaign partisan sponsor | 400 LV | Calvert 33 (R) · Kim 32 (R) | Calvert+1 | Not checked yet release |
| California Governor | Jun 29–Jul 6, 2026 | PPIC | 1003 LV | Becerra 61 (D) · Hilton 36 (R) | D+25 | Checked release |
| CA-22 | Jun 15–21, 2026 | Tulchin Research for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 800 LV | Villegas 48 (D) · Valadao 44 (R) | D+4 | Not checked yet release |
| California Governor | May 19–24, 2026 | Berkeley IGS | 8578 RV | Becerra 52 (D) · Hilton 31 (R) | D+21 | Checked release |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Governor | 16 | Oct 25, 2026 | D+23 (9) | D+24 | California Governor forecast |
| CA-22 | 1 | Jun 21, 2026 | D+4 (1) | — | CA-22 forecast |
| CA-48 | 4 | Oct 20, 2026 | D+6 (2) | — | CA-48 forecast |
| CA-34 | 2 | Oct 24, 2026 | — | — | CA-34 forecast |
| CA-4 | 1 | Oct 20, 2026 | — | — | CA-4 forecast |
| CA-11 | 2 | Oct 19, 2026 | — | — | CA-11 forecast |
| CA-6 | 2 | Sep 6, 2026 | — | — | CA-6 forecast |
| CA-7 | 1 | Aug 21, 2026 | — | — | CA-7 forecast |
| CA-40 | 2 | Aug 20, 2026 | — | — | CA-40 forecast |