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Latest polls

Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted average from the nowcast as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).

Newest polls

All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.

Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.

Newest polls
RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMarginChecked
California GovernorOct 19–25, 2026Berkeley IGS
for Los Angeles Times
1477 LVBecerra 61 (D) · Hilton 34 (R)D+27Not checked yet release
California GovernorOct 19–24, 2026SurveyUSA
for KGTV and The San Diego Union-Tribune
799 LVBecerra 54 (D) · Hilton 32 (R)D+22Citation unreadable release
CA-34Oct 16–24, 2026University of Southern California423 LVGonzales-Torres 51 (D) · Gomez 45 (D)Gonzales-Torres+6Citation unreadable release
California GovernorOct 21–23, 2026M3 Strategies489 LVBecerra 59 (D) · Hilton 36 (R)D+23Not checked yet release
California GovernorOct 16–22, 2026PPIC1086 LVBecerra 61 (D) · Hilton 37 (R)D+24Not checked yet release
California GovernorOct 17–20, 2026McLaughlin & Associates
for California Post
800 LVBecerra 55 (D) · Hilton 39 (R)D+16Not checked yet release
CA-4Oct 18–20, 2026Fulcrum Strategy Group
for Jones's campaign
partisan sponsor
400 LVJones 53 (D) · Thompson 40 (D)Jones+13Not checked yet release
CA-48Oct 17–20, 2026Tarrance Group
for Desmond's campaign
partisan sponsor
410 LVvon Wilpert 47 (D) · Desmond 44 (R)D+3Not checked yet release
California GovernorOct 17–19, 2026Emerson College1000 LVBecerra 60 (D) · Hilton 33 (R)D+27Checked release
CA-11Oct 16–19, 2026University of Southern California454 LVWiener 51 (D) · Chan 44 (D)Wiener+7Citation unreadable release
California GovernorSep 24–Oct 16, 2026ActiVote400 LVBecerra 63 (D) · Hilton 37 (R)D+26Checked release
California GovernorOct 9–14, 2026UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot/Politico909 LVBecerra 55 (D) · Hilton 35 (R)D+20Not checked yet release
CA-48Oct 1–7, 2026SurveyUSA
for KGTV and The San Diego Union-Tribune
518 LVvon Wilpert 47 (D) · Desmond 38 (R)D+9Release found release
California GovernorSep 24–Oct 1, 2026Manhattan Institute1000 LVBecerra 57 (D) · Hilton 39 (R)D+18Release found release
California GovernorSep 15–20, 2026Berkeley IGS
for Los Angeles Times
4512 LVBecerra 58 (D) · Hilton 33 (R)D+25Checked release
California GovernorSep 15–20, 2026SurveyUSA742 LVBecerra 55 (D) · Hilton 33 (R)D+22Checked release
California GovernorSep 8–14, 2026UC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot/Politico2418 RVBecerra 48 (D) · Hilton 34 (R)D+14Citation unreadable release
California GovernorSep 4–10, 2026PPIC1103 LVBecerra 60 (D) · Hilton 38 (R)D+22Checked release
CA-6Sep 1–6, 2026The Bullfinch Group
for Independent Leadership Council
partisan sponsor
927 LVPan 37 (D) · Kiley 37 (I)EvenChecked release
CA-34Sep 1–5, 2026Upswing Research
for Guardrails Alliance
partisan sponsor
403 LVGonzales-Torres 41 (D) · Gomez 38 (D)Gonzales-Torres+3Checked release
CA-48Aug 27–Sep 1, 2026SurveyUSA
for KGTV and The San Diego Union-Tribune
522 LVvon Wilpert 45 (D) · Desmond 42 (R)D+3Citation unreadable release
CA-7Aug 18–21, 2026Data for Progress
for Justice Democrats
partisan sponsor
651 LVVang 32 (D) · Matsui 28 (D)Vang+4Not checked yet release
CA-40Aug 17–20, 2026Public Opinion Strategies
for Kim's campaign
partisan sponsor
400 LVCalvert 35 (R) · Kim 34 (R)Calvert+1Checked release
California GovernorAug 3–9, 2026Berkeley IGS
for Los Angeles Times
2310 LVBecerra 55 (D) · Hilton 37 (R)D+18Checked release
CA-11Jul 14–19, 2026Lake Research Partners
for Chan's campaign
partisan sponsor
— Wiener 45 (D) · Chan 40 (D)Wiener+5Not checked yet release
CA-6Jul 13–16, 2026The Bullfinch Group/Independent Center741 LVPan 39 (D) · Kiley 35 (I)Pan+4Citation unreadable release
CA-48Jul 9–14, 2026Lake Research Partners
for von Wilpert's campaign
partisan sponsor
500 LVvon Wilpert 48 (D) · Desmond 46 (R)D+2Checked release
CA-40Jul 8–12, 2026American Viewpoint
for Kim's campaign
partisan sponsor
400 LVCalvert 33 (R) · Kim 32 (R)Calvert+1Not checked yet release
California GovernorJun 29–Jul 6, 2026PPIC1003 LVBecerra 61 (D) · Hilton 36 (R)D+25Checked release
CA-22Jun 15–21, 2026Tulchin Research
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
800 LVVillegas 48 (D) · Valadao 44 (R)D+4Not checked yet release
California GovernorMay 19–24, 2026Berkeley IGS8578 RVBecerra 52 (D) · Hilton 31 (R)D+21Checked release

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.

Polling averages by race
RacePollsLatestSimple average
30 days to the newest poll (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Forecast
California Governor16Oct 25, 2026D+23 (9)D+24California Governor forecast
CA-221Jun 21, 2026D+4 (1)—CA-22 forecast
CA-484Oct 20, 2026D+6 (2)—CA-48 forecast
CA-342Oct 24, 2026——CA-34 forecast
CA-41Oct 20, 2026——CA-4 forecast
CA-112Oct 19, 2026——CA-11 forecast
CA-62Sep 6, 2026——CA-6 forecast
CA-71Aug 21, 2026——CA-7 forecast
CA-402Aug 20, 2026——CA-40 forecast