Arizona elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
No 2026 U.S. Senate race is listed in FutureBallot’s current coverage. Check the official election office below.
Governor
Arizona Governor
D 96%
Andy Biggs · Katie Hobbs
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-1 | Amish Shah · Monica Alponte · Jay Feely | D 69% | Lean D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| AZ-2 | Jonathan Nez · Curtis Goodwin · Eli Crane | R 77% | Lean R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| AZ-3 | Yassamin Ansari · Alan Aversa · David Redkey | No opposing major-party candidate (D) | — | No candidate forecast |
| AZ-4 | Greg Stanton · Tisha Benoit · Zuhdi Jasser | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| AZ-5 | Elizabeth Lee · Mark Lamb | R 96% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| AZ-6 | JoAnna Mendoza · Gary Swing · Jereme Lance Peters · Juan Ciscomani | D 66% | Lean D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| AZ-7 | Adelita Grijalva · Daniel Butierez | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| AZ-8 | Bernadette Greene-Placentia · Abraham Hamadeh | R 96% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| AZ-9 | Danielle Sterbinsky · Paul Gosar | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona House | 60 | 31 | 3% | 94% |
| Arizona Senate | 30 | 16 | 38% | 44% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
Arizona election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.