Arizona election questions
Questions on races and election records in this state.
Election questions
How competitive are Arizona’s congressional races in 2026?
FutureBallot rates three House districts in Arizona competitive in the dated forecasts listed below. The table covers nine House districts. Districts with missing or withheld forecast evidence: zero.
| Contest | Highest modeled chance | Status | Evidence date |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-6 | JoAnna Mendoza: 65.7% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-1 | Amish Shah: 70.3% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-2 | Eli Crane: 76.5% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-8 | Abraham Hamadeh: 95.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-5 | Mark Lamb: 95.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-4 | Greg Stanton: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-9 | Paul Gosar: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-7 | Adelita Grijalva: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-3 | No candidate probability | No opposing major-party candidate | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
No U.S. Senate forecast is included for this state. This alone does not establish whether a Senate election is scheduled.
Ratings use the favorite’s chance rounded to a whole percent. Competitive means Lean or Toss-up, below 85%; Toss-up is below 60%.
House contests are listed from the closest modeled race outward. Assignments and unavailable forecasts follow the modeled races.
A party assignment does not necessarily mean a candidate is unopposed. Same-party, independent or minor-party candidates can still contest a seat.
Sources: All House district statuses · Rating definitions
How competitive are Arizona’s U.S. House races in 2026?
FutureBallot rates three House districts in Arizona competitive in the dated forecasts listed below. The table covers nine House districts. Districts with missing or withheld forecast evidence: zero.
| Contest | Highest modeled chance | Status | Evidence date |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-6 | JoAnna Mendoza: 65.7% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-1 | Amish Shah: 70.3% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-2 | Eli Crane: 76.5% | Lean | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-8 | Abraham Hamadeh: 95.6% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-5 | Mark Lamb: 95.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-4 | Greg Stanton: 99.8% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-9 | Paul Gosar: 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-7 | Adelita Grijalva: more than 99.9% | Safe | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
| AZ-3 | No candidate probability | No opposing major-party candidate | October 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC |
Ratings use the favorite’s chance rounded to a whole percent. Competitive means Lean or Toss-up, below 85%; Toss-up is below 60%.
House contests are listed from the closest modeled race outward. Assignments and unavailable forecasts follow the modeled races.
A party assignment does not necessarily mean a candidate is unopposed. Same-party, independent or minor-party candidates can still contest a seat.
Sources: All House district statuses · Rating definitions
Which party, if any, is favored in each 2026 state legislative chamber with seats up in Arizona?
FutureBallot’s state legislative forecast dated October 30, 2026, 12:45 UTC lists majority chances, marks a chamber nonpartisan, or reports unresolved probabilities for each chamber with seats up.
| Chamber | Democratic majority | Republican majority | Seats up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona House | 2.9% | 94.0% | 60 |
| Arizona Senate | 37.6% | 43.9% | 30 |
Each chamber is a separate contest. These are not joint probabilities of controlling the legislature. A range assigns seats that cannot be forecast to each party in turn. When exact party probabilities sum to less than 100%, the remainder is the chance neither party has a majority. No party-majority probability is reported for a nonpartisan chamber.
Sources: State legislative forecasts and limitations · Arizona House · Arizona Senate
Where can I find Arizona election dates and voting information?
Use Arizona’s election office for its election calendar, ballot information and links to local voting services. Check the year and whether the date concerns a primary, general, special or runoff election.
The office link was read from USAGov on 2026-10-30. FutureBallot does not maintain a separate calendar of voting deadlines.
Sources: Arizona election office — USAGov directory · USAGov official-office directory