Latest polls
Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted average from the nowcast as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
Newest polls
All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.
Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.
| Race | Dates | Pollster | Sample | Result | Margin | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Governor | Oct 26–28, 2026 | Noble Predictive Insights | 511 LV | Hobbs 51 (D) · Biggs 45 (R) | D+6 | Checked release |
| AZ-1 | Oct 26–28, 2026 | Keating Research | 500 LV | Shah 49 (D) · Feely 45 (R) | D+4 | Not checked yet release |
| Arizona Governor | Oct 21–25, 2026 | Highground | 400 LV | Hobbs 52 (D) · Biggs 39 (R) | D+13 | Checked release |
| AZ-2 | Oct 12–14, 2026 | Emerson College for Poll Vault | 345 LV | Nez 50 (D) · Crane 48 (R) | D+2 | Not checked yet release |
| Arizona Governor | Oct 6–8, 2026 | Highground | 400 LV | Hobbs 51 (D) · Biggs 34 (R) | D+17 | Release found release |
| Arizona Governor | Oct 3–6, 2026 | Wick | 1513 LV | Hobbs 49 (D) · Biggs 43 (R) | D+6 | Checked release |
| Arizona Governor | Sep 30–Oct 5, 2026 | GQR Research for Hobbs' campaign partisan sponsor | 600 LV | Hobbs 49 (D) · Biggs 45 (R) | D+4 | Checked release |
| AZ-1 | Oct 1, 2026 | FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs | 400 LV | Shah 44 (D) · Feely 42 (R) | D+2 | Not checked yet release |
| Arizona Governor | Aug 18–Sep 4, 2026 | Arizona State University | 1300 RV | Hobbs 47 (D) · Biggs 34 (R) | D+13 | Checked release |
| AZ-2 | Aug 21–24, 2026 | GBAO for Jonathan Nez for Congress campaign internal | 500 LV | Crane 46 (R) · Nez 44 (D) | R+2 | Checked release |
| AZ-2 | Aug 17–20, 2026 | Peak Insightspartisan sponsor | 400 LV | Crane 53 (R) · Nez 42 (D) | R+11 | Checked release |
| Arizona Governor | Aug 15–18, 2026 | Highground | 400 LV | Hobbs 49 (D) · Biggs 34 (R) | D+15 | Checked release |
| Arizona Governor | Aug 14–17, 2026 | Quantus Insights | 780 LV | Hobbs 49 (D) · Biggs 43 (R) | D+6 | Checked release |
| Arizona Governor | Aug 10–13, 2026 | Noble Predictive Insights | 923 LV | Hobbs 48 (D) · Biggs 35 (R) | D+13 | Checked release |
| Arizona Governor | Jul 27–30, 2026 | Tarrance Group for Democracy Defense Foundation | 600 LV | Hobbs 52 (D) · Biggs 48 (R) | D+4 | Checked release |
| Arizona Governor | Jul 26–28, 2026 | Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research for AARP | 913 LV | Hobbs 52 (D) · Biggs 44 (R) | D+8 | Checked release |
| AZ-2 | Jun 11–15, 2026 | GBAOpartisan sponsor | 500 LV | Crane 44 (R) · Nez 41 (D) | R+3 | Checked release |
| AZ-6 | Jun 8–11, 2026 | Normington, Petts and Associates for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 500 LV | Mendoza 47 (D) · Ciscomani 45 (R) | D+2 | Checked release |
| Arizona Governor | May 5–7, 2026 | Noble Predictive Insights | 996 RV | Hobbs 41 (D) · Biggs 37 (R) | D+4 | Checked release |
| Arizona Governor | Apr 20–24, 2026 | TIPP Insights for League of American Workers | 1159 LV | Hobbs 48 (D) · Biggs 38 (R) | D+10 | Checked release |
| AZ-6 | Mar 12–14, 2026 | Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives For America partisan sponsor | 400 LV | Mendoza 47 (D) · Ciscomani 44 (R) | D+3 | Release found release |
| Arizona Governor | Feb 23–26, 2026 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1023 RV | Hobbs 42 (D) · Biggs 37 (R) | D+5 | Checked release |
| Arizona Governor | Nov 8–10, 2025 | Emerson College | 850 RV | Hobbs 44 (D) · Biggs 43 (R) | D+1 | Checked |
| AZ-6 | Oct 14–15, 2025 | Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC partisan sponsor | 581 LV | Mendoza 42 (D) · Ciscomani 41 (R) | D+1 | Checked release |
| Arizona Governor | Aug 11–18, 2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 948 RV | Hobbs 39 (D) · Biggs 37 (R) | D+2 | Checked |
| Arizona Governor | May 12–16, 2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1026 RV | Hobbs 40 (D) · Biggs 38 (R) | D+2 | Checked |
| Arizona Governor | Apr 6–9, 2025 | Pulse Decision Science for Club for Growth PAC partisan sponsor | 501 LV | Hobbs 46 (D) · Biggs 42 (R) | D+4 | Checked |
| Arizona Governor | Feb 11–13, 2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1006 RV | Hobbs 40 (D) · Biggs 38 (R) | D+2 | Checked |
Polling averages by race
Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.
| Race | Polls | Latest | Simple average 30 days to the newest poll (n) | Adjusted average our nowcast | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Governor | 19 | Oct 28, 2026 | D+9 (5) | D+9 | Arizona Governor forecast |
| AZ-2 | 4 | Oct 14, 2026 | D+2 (1) | — | AZ-2 forecast |
| AZ-6 | 3 | Jun 11, 2026 | D+2 (1) | — | AZ-6 forecast |
| AZ-1 | 2 | Oct 28, 2026 | D+3 (2) | — | AZ-1 forecast |