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Latest polls

Every eligible poll in every race covered, newest first. Excluded firms are listed separately with reasons. Polls on record as of October 31, 2026, 6:06 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (13:06 UTC); adjusted average from the nowcast as of October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).

Newest polls

All eligible polls in one complete HTML table, available without scripts. Filters require JavaScript; use the complete table if they cannot load.

Polls by 55 firms are not used and not listed here: firms that fabricated data, campaigns' own polling operations, and firms with no published poll of an election already decided, so no record to judge them by yet. The firms and why.

Newest polls
RaceDatesPollsterSampleResultMarginChecked
Arizona GovernorOct 26–28, 2026Noble Predictive Insights511 LVHobbs 51 (D) · Biggs 45 (R)D+6Checked release
AZ-1Oct 26–28, 2026Keating Research500 LVShah 49 (D) · Feely 45 (R)D+4Not checked yet release
Arizona GovernorOct 21–25, 2026Highground400 LVHobbs 52 (D) · Biggs 39 (R)D+13Checked release
AZ-2Oct 12–14, 2026Emerson College
for Poll Vault
345 LVNez 50 (D) · Crane 48 (R)D+2Not checked yet release
Arizona GovernorOct 6–8, 2026Highground400 LVHobbs 51 (D) · Biggs 34 (R)D+17Release found release
Arizona GovernorOct 3–6, 2026Wick1513 LVHobbs 49 (D) · Biggs 43 (R)D+6Checked release
Arizona GovernorSep 30–Oct 5, 2026GQR Research
for Hobbs' campaign
partisan sponsor
600 LVHobbs 49 (D) · Biggs 45 (R)D+4Checked release
AZ-1Oct 1, 2026FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs400 LVShah 44 (D) · Feely 42 (R)D+2Not checked yet release
Arizona GovernorAug 18–Sep 4, 2026Arizona State University1300 RVHobbs 47 (D) · Biggs 34 (R)D+13Checked release
AZ-2Aug 21–24, 2026GBAO
for Jonathan Nez for Congress
campaign internal
500 LVCrane 46 (R) · Nez 44 (D)R+2Checked release
AZ-2Aug 17–20, 2026Peak Insightspartisan sponsor400 LVCrane 53 (R) · Nez 42 (D)R+11Checked release
Arizona GovernorAug 15–18, 2026Highground400 LVHobbs 49 (D) · Biggs 34 (R)D+15Checked release
Arizona GovernorAug 14–17, 2026Quantus Insights780 LVHobbs 49 (D) · Biggs 43 (R)D+6Checked release
Arizona GovernorAug 10–13, 2026Noble Predictive Insights923 LVHobbs 48 (D) · Biggs 35 (R)D+13Checked release
Arizona GovernorJul 27–30, 2026Tarrance Group
for Democracy Defense Foundation
600 LVHobbs 52 (D) · Biggs 48 (R)D+4Checked release
Arizona GovernorJul 26–28, 2026Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research
for AARP
913 LVHobbs 52 (D) · Biggs 44 (R)D+8Checked release
AZ-2Jun 11–15, 2026GBAOpartisan sponsor500 LVCrane 44 (R) · Nez 41 (D)R+3Checked release
AZ-6Jun 8–11, 2026Normington, Petts and Associates
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
500 LVMendoza 47 (D) · Ciscomani 45 (R)D+2Checked release
Arizona GovernorMay 5–7, 2026Noble Predictive Insights996 RVHobbs 41 (D) · Biggs 37 (R)D+4Checked release
Arizona GovernorApr 20–24, 2026TIPP Insights
for League of American Workers
1159 LVHobbs 48 (D) · Biggs 38 (R)D+10Checked release
AZ-6Mar 12–14, 2026Ragnar Research Partners
for Conservatives For America
partisan sponsor
400 LVMendoza 47 (D) · Ciscomani 44 (R)D+3Release found release
Arizona GovernorFeb 23–26, 2026Noble Predictive Insights1023 RVHobbs 42 (D) · Biggs 37 (R)D+5Checked release
Arizona GovernorNov 8–10, 2025Emerson College850 RVHobbs 44 (D) · Biggs 43 (R)D+1Checked
AZ-6Oct 14–15, 2025Public Policy Polling
for House Majority PAC
partisan sponsor
581 LVMendoza 42 (D) · Ciscomani 41 (R)D+1Checked release
Arizona GovernorAug 11–18, 2025Noble Predictive Insights948 RVHobbs 39 (D) · Biggs 37 (R)D+2Checked
Arizona GovernorMay 12–16, 2025Noble Predictive Insights1026 RVHobbs 40 (D) · Biggs 38 (R)D+2Checked
Arizona GovernorApr 6–9, 2025Pulse Decision Science
for Club for Growth PAC
partisan sponsor
501 LVHobbs 46 (D) · Biggs 42 (R)D+4Checked
Arizona GovernorFeb 11–13, 2025Noble Predictive Insights1006 RVHobbs 40 (D) · Biggs 38 (R)D+2Checked

Polling averages by race

Simple average: the plain mean margin of the race's polls in the 30 days before its newest one, between the two candidates the forecast is between (the Democrat and the Republican in most races; where an independent is the main challenger, the independent). Adjusted average: the nowcast's estimate of the race today -- polls weighted by recency and size, corrected for each pollster's measured lean. Where they differ, the difference is the adjustment. House district polls listed here are inputs to the House model's election-day forecast (each district's estimate is moved toward its own polls, corrected for the sponsor's measured lean); there is no House nowcast. A race the model withholds shows its polls and no adjusted average.

Polling averages by race
RacePollsLatestSimple average
30 days to the newest poll (n)
Adjusted average
our nowcast
Forecast
Arizona Governor19Oct 28, 2026D+9 (5)D+9Arizona Governor forecast
AZ-24Oct 14, 2026D+2 (1)—AZ-2 forecast
AZ-63Jun 11, 2026D+2 (1)—AZ-6 forecast
AZ-12Oct 28, 2026D+3 (2)—AZ-1 forecast