Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Texas House

Texas House District 101

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Junior Ezeonu (D)

Texas House District 101: Decided: only a Democrat is runningTexas House 10: chance of a Democratic win 4%; 2024 president R+31Texas House 109: chance of a Democratic win 99%; 2024 president D+53Texas House 111: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+52Texas House 92: chance of a Democratic win 98%; 2024 president D+16Texas House 94: chance of a Democratic win 21%; 2024 president R+10Texas House 96: chance of a Democratic win 12%; 2024 president R+11Texas House District 101: Decided: only a Democrat is running941119610910101
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 101 is safe Democratic. Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 3 favour Democrats, 3 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesJunior Ezeonu (D)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)
Current memberChris Turner

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024D+30
President 2024D+27
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtTexas
Median household income$88,422$76,292
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)33%33%
Median age3236
White (not Hispanic)26%40%
Black30%12%
Hispanic29%39%
Asian10%5%
Born abroad23%17%
Jobs in manufacturing12%9%
Jobs in farming or mining0%2%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.