Get the briefing by email: when the forecast moves and weekly through Election Day, then how our forecast did. See one

New York election questions

Questions on races and election records in this state.

Election questions

How competitive are New York’s congressional races in 2026?

FutureBallot rates two House districts in New York competitive in the dated forecasts listed below. The table covers twenty-six House districts. Districts with missing or withheld forecast evidence: zero.

How competitive are New York’s congressional races in 2026?
ContestHighest modeled chanceStatusEvidence date
NY-17Mike Lawler: 51.4%Toss-upOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-21Anthony Constantino: 73.9%LeanOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-1Nick LaLota: 86.3%LikelyOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-3Tom Suozzi: 96.6%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-4Laura Gillen: 98.3%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-2Andrew Garbarino: 98.7%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-18Pat Ryan: 99.2%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-19Josh Riley: 99.4%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-11Nicole Malliotakis: 99.6%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-23Nick Langworthy: 99.7%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-24Claudia Tenney: 99.8%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-6Grace Meng: 99.8%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-22John Mannion: 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-20Paul Tonko: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-25Joseph Morelle: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-14Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-26Tim Kennedy: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-5Gregory Meeks: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-7Claire Valdez: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-13Darializa Avila Chevalier: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-15Ritchie Torres: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-8Hakeem Jeffries: 100.0%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-9Yvette Clarke: 100.0%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-10Brad Lander: 100.0%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-12Micah Lasher: 100.0%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-16George Latimer: 100.0%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC

No U.S. Senate forecast is included for this state. This alone does not establish whether a Senate election is scheduled.

Ratings use the favorite’s chance rounded to a whole percent. Competitive means Lean or Toss-up, below 85%; Toss-up is below 60%.

House contests are listed from the closest modeled race outward. Assignments and unavailable forecasts follow the modeled races.

A party assignment does not necessarily mean a candidate is unopposed. Same-party, independent or minor-party candidates can still contest a seat.

Sources: All House district statuses · Rating definitions

Ask a follow-up

How competitive are New York’s U.S. House races in 2026?

FutureBallot rates two House districts in New York competitive in the dated forecasts listed below. The table covers twenty-six House districts. Districts with missing or withheld forecast evidence: zero.

How competitive are New York’s U.S. House races in 2026?
ContestHighest modeled chanceStatusEvidence date
NY-17Mike Lawler: 51.4%Toss-upOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-21Anthony Constantino: 73.9%LeanOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-1Nick LaLota: 86.3%LikelyOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-3Tom Suozzi: 96.6%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-4Laura Gillen: 98.3%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-2Andrew Garbarino: 98.7%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-18Pat Ryan: 99.2%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-19Josh Riley: 99.4%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-11Nicole Malliotakis: 99.6%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-23Nick Langworthy: 99.7%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-24Claudia Tenney: 99.8%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-6Grace Meng: 99.8%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-22John Mannion: 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-20Paul Tonko: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-25Joseph Morelle: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-14Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-26Tim Kennedy: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-5Gregory Meeks: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-7Claire Valdez: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-13Darializa Avila Chevalier: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-15Ritchie Torres: more than 99.9%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-8Hakeem Jeffries: 100.0%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-9Yvette Clarke: 100.0%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-10Brad Lander: 100.0%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-12Micah Lasher: 100.0%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC
NY-16George Latimer: 100.0%SafeOctober 30, 2026, 06:54 UTC

Ratings use the favorite’s chance rounded to a whole percent. Competitive means Lean or Toss-up, below 85%; Toss-up is below 60%.

House contests are listed from the closest modeled race outward. Assignments and unavailable forecasts follow the modeled races.

A party assignment does not necessarily mean a candidate is unopposed. Same-party, independent or minor-party candidates can still contest a seat.

Sources: All House district statuses · Rating definitions

Link to this question · Ask a follow-up

Which party, if any, is favored in each 2026 state legislative chamber with seats up in New York?

FutureBallot’s state legislative forecast dated October 30, 2026, 12:45 UTC lists majority chances, marks a chamber nonpartisan, or reports unresolved probabilities for each chamber with seats up.

Which party, if any, is favored in each 2026 state legislative chamber with seats up in New York?
ChamberDemocratic majorityRepublican majoritySeats up
New York Assembly100.0%0.0%150
New York Senate100.0%0.0%63

Each chamber is a separate contest. These are not joint probabilities of controlling the legislature. A range assigns seats that cannot be forecast to each party in turn. When exact party probabilities sum to less than 100%, the remainder is the chance neither party has a majority. No party-majority probability is reported for a nonpartisan chamber.

Sources: State legislative forecasts and limitations · New York Assembly · New York Senate

Link to this question · Ask a follow-up

Where can I find New York election dates and voting information?

Use New York’s election office for its election calendar, ballot information and links to local voting services. Check the year and whether the date concerns a primary, general, special or runoff election.

The office link was read from USAGov on 2026-10-30. FutureBallot does not maintain a separate calendar of voting deadlines.

Sources: New York election office — USAGov directory · USAGov official-office directory

Link to this question · Ask a follow-up

Browse election questions