Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Rhode Island House

Rhode Island House District 14

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Charlene M. Lima (D)

Rhode Island House District 14: Decided: only a Democrat is runningRhode Island House 10: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+37Rhode Island House 13: chance of a Democratic win 95%; 2024 president D+9Rhode Island House 16: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+14Rhode Island House 17: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president R+4Rhode Island House 42: chance of a Democratic win 16%; 2024 president R+15Rhode Island House 9: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+50Rhode Island House District 14: Decided: only a Democrat is running9131016174214
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 14 is safe Democratic. Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 5 favour Democrats, 1 favours Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesCharlene M. Lima (D)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)
Current memberCharlene Lima

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (D)
President 2024D+10
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtRhode Island
Median household income$58,320$86,372
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)19%37%
Median age3440
White (not Hispanic)41%69%
Black6%5%
Hispanic42%17%
Asian8%3%
Born abroad27%15%
Jobs in manufacturing12%11%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.