Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Rhode Island House

Rhode Island House District 74

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Alex Finkelman (D)

Rhode Island House District 74: Decided: only a Democrat is runningRhode Island House 31: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+13Rhode Island House 32: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+27Rhode Island House 33: chance of a Democratic win 99%; 2024 president D+23Rhode Island House 69: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+15Rhode Island House 72: chance of a Democratic win >99%Rhode Island House 73: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+38Rhode Island House 75: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+39Rhode Island House District 74: Decided: only a Democrat is running7333723231697574
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 74 is safe Democratic. Of its 7 neighbouring districts, 7 favour Democrats.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesAlex Finkelman (D)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)
Current memberAlex Finkelman

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (D)
President 2024D+31
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtRhode Island
Median household income$103,784$86,372
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)54%37%
Median age5240
White (not Hispanic)82%69%
Black3%5%
Hispanic5%17%
Asian2%3%
Born abroad6%15%
Jobs in manufacturing6%11%
Jobs in farming or mining1%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.