Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Rhode Island House

Rhode Island House District 29

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Sherry L. Roberts (R)

Rhode Island House District 29: Decided: only a Republican is runningConnecticut House 44: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+24Connecticut House 45: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+13Rhode Island House 27: chance of a Democratic win 99%; 2024 president R+3Rhode Island House 28: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+13Rhode Island House 30: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+19Rhode Island House 39: chance of a Democratic win 96%; 2024 president R+5Rhode Island House 40: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+20Rhode Island House District 29: Decided: only a Republican is running272830CT 443940CT 4529
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 29 is safe Republican. Of its 7 neighbouring districts, 3 favour Democrats, 4 favour Republicans. 2 of them are across the state line.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesSherry L. Roberts (R)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)
Current memberSherry Roberts

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+16
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtRhode Island
Median household income$103,870$86,372
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)31%37%
Median age4740
White (not Hispanic)89%69%
Black0%5%
Hispanic7%17%
Asian0%3%
Born abroad7%15%
Jobs in manufacturing12%11%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.