Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

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Pennsylvania House District 185

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Regina Young (D)

Pennsylvania House District 185: Decided: only a Democrat is runningNew Jersey lower 3: no election in 2026Pennsylvania House 162: chance of a Democratic win 98%; 2024 president D+11Pennsylvania House 184: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+33Pennsylvania House 186: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+77Pennsylvania House 191: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+87Pennsylvania House District 185: Decided: only a Democrat is running191NJ 3185
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 185 is safe Democratic. Of its 5 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Democrats, 1 has no 2026 forecast. 1 of them is across the state line.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesRegina Young (D)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberRegina Young

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022uncontested (D)
Governor 2022D+49
Legislature 2024uncontested (D)
President 2024D+35
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtPennsylvania
Median household income$57,929$76,081
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)26%34%
Median age3741
White (not Hispanic)33%74%
Black51%10%
Hispanic5%8%
Asian6%4%
Born abroad16%7%
Jobs in manufacturing6%11%
Jobs in farming or mining0%1%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.