Pennsylvania elections
2026 forecasts, districts, polling and election information
U.S. Senate
No 2026 U.S. Senate race is listed in FutureBallot’s current coverage. Check the official election office below.
Governor
Pennsylvania Governor
D >99%
Josh Shapiro · Stacy Garrity
October 30, 2026, 5:55 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (00:55 UTC).
U.S. House districts
Competitive means Lean or Toss-up: the favorite’s displayed chance is below 85%. A party assignment is not a candidate win probability.
| District | Candidates on record | Forecast / status | Rating | Forecast date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-1 | Bob Harvie · Brian Fitzpatrick | R 70% | Lean R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-2 | Brendan Boyle · Jessica Arriaga | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-3 | Chris Rabb · Dennis Mahoney | No opposing major-party candidate (D) | — | No candidate forecast |
| PA-4 | Madeleine Dean · Aurora Stuski | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-5 | Mary Gay Scanlon · Nicholas Manganaro | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-6 | Chrissy Houlahan · Marty Young | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-7 | Bob Brooks · Ryan Mackenzie | D 71% | Lean D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-8 | Paige Cognetti · Rob Bresnahan | D 57% | Toss-up | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-9 | Rachel Wallace · Dan Meuser | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-10 | Janelle Stelson · Scott Perry | D 68% | Lean D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-11 | Nancy Mannion · Lloyd Smucker | R 99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-12 | Summer Lee · James Hayes | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-13 | Beth Farnham · John Joyce | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-14 | Alan Bradstock · Guy Reschenthaler | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-15 | Ray Bilger · Glenn Thompson | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-16 | Justin Wagner · Mike Kelly | R >99% | Safe R | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
| PA-17 | Chris Deluzio · Tony Guy | D >99% | Safe D | October 31, 2026, 12:04 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time (07:04 UTC) |
State legislature
Updated October 31, 2026, 05:30 UTC.
These are separate party-majority chances, not the chance of joint control. A tie, independent members or a coalition can leave neither party with a majority. The initial model has limited validation; read the evidence and limitations.
| Chamber | Seats up | Majority threshold | Democratic majority | Republican majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania House | 203 | 102 | 73% | 27% |
| Pennsylvania Senate | 25 | 26 | 4% | 89% |
Explore the evidence
Polls and forecasts answer different questions. Each forecast above keeps its own run date. No separate state-environment estimate or joint trifecta probability is implied by these panels.
Official ballot and election rules
Pennsylvania election office — USAGov directory provides election calendars, official ballot information and local voting services. This page covers FutureBallot’s listed offices; other statewide/local offices and ballot measures may also be on your ballot.