Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Colorado House

Colorado House District 56

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

No Democrat running: counted Republican · Chris Richardson (R), Amy L. Lunde (Libertarian)

Colorado House District 56: No Democrat running: counted RepublicanColorado House 15: chance of a Democratic win 11%; 2024 president R+14Colorado House 20: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+34Colorado House 21: chance of a Democratic win 10%; 2024 president R+15Colorado House 32: chance of a Democratic win 95%; 2024 president D+7Colorado House 36: chance of a Democratic win 98%; 2024 president D+25Colorado House 39: chance of a Democratic win 4%; 2024 president R+9Colorado House 44: chance of a Democratic win 4%; 2024 president R+10Colorado House 47: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+31Colorado House 48: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+27Colorado House 61: chance of a Democratic win 97%; 2024 president D+9Colorado House 63: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+59Colorado House 7: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+46Kansas House 118: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+76Kansas House 120: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+71Colorado House District 56: No Democrat running: counted Republican3621204839KS 120KS 118634756
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 56 is safe Republican. Of its 14 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Democrats, 10 favour Republicans. 2 of them are across the state line.

StatusNo Democrat running: counted Republican
CandidatesChris Richardson (R), Amy L. Lunde (Libertarian)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberChris Richardson

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022R+56
Governor 2022R+46
Legislature 2024R+51
President 2024R+50
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtColorado
Median household income$105,606$92,470
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)30%45%
Median age4138
White (not Hispanic)77%66%
Black2%4%
Hispanic15%22%
Asian1%3%
Born abroad5%10%
Jobs in manufacturing6%7%
Jobs in farming or mining5%2%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.