Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Colorado House

Colorado House District 41

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Democrat is running · Jamie Jackson (D)

Colorado House District 41: Decided: only a Democrat is runningColorado House 3: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+35Colorado House 36: chance of a Democratic win 98%; 2024 president D+25Colorado House 40: chance of a Democratic win 99%; 2024 president D+20Colorado House 42: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+36Colorado House 6: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+72Colorado House 9: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+51Colorado House District 41: Decided: only a Democrat is running64294033641
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 41 is safe Democratic. Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 6 favour Democrats.

StatusDecided: only a Democrat is running
CandidatesJamie Jackson (D)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberJamie Jackson

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022D+28
Governor 2022D+40
Legislature 2024D+27
President 2024D+30
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtColorado
Median household income$76,789$92,470
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)34%45%
Median age3738
White (not Hispanic)45%66%
Black17%4%
Hispanic26%22%
Asian6%3%
Born abroad20%10%
Jobs in manufacturing5%7%
Jobs in farming or mining1%2%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.