Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › California Assembly

California Assembly District 55

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

No Republican running: counted Democrat · Ashley M. Brown (D), Isaac G. Bryan (D)

California Assembly District 55: No Republican running: counted DemocratCalifornia Assembly 51: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+54California Assembly 54: chance of a Democratic win 99%; 2024 president D+46California Assembly 57: chance of a Democratic win 99%; 2024 president D+54California Assembly 61: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president D+59California Assembly District 55: No Republican running: counted Democrat5754516155
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 55 is safe Democratic. Of its 4 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Democrats.

StatusNo Republican running: counted Democrat
CandidatesAshley M. Brown (D), Isaac G. Bryan (D)
Candidate list fromaggregator (The Ballot Brief)
Current memberIsaac Bryan

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022D+67
Governor 2022D+66
Legislature 2024D+61
President 2024D+64
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtCalifornia
Median household income$90,962$96,334
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)48%36%
Median age3838
White (not Hispanic)29%35%
Black21%5%
Hispanic33%40%
Asian10%15%
Born abroad28%27%
Jobs in manufacturing5%9%
Jobs in farming or mining0%2%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.