FutureBallotU.S. election forecasts, with every number traced to its source

Remington Research

pollster · as of 2026-10-03

How much of this firm's work is in here?

61 polls, fielded between 2014-09-23 and 2026-09-15.

How much of it has been checked?

8 of 61 (13%) have been verified against the pollster's own release. The rest were transcribed from a discovery layer and are provisional (ADR-0009).

Does this firm lean?

R+1.3. A lean is the firm's average deviation from what other firms said about the same race within 14 days, over every race it has polled. It is never measured against an election result. Firms with fewer than 4 such comparisons get no number. The rest are shrunk toward zero by a weight of 5.0, so a firm seen five times is pulled halfway and one seen fifty barely moves.

What would this measurement miss?

This measurement cannot see an error the whole industry shares: if every firm is wrong in the same direction, every firm's deviation from the others is still zero. That error is estimated separately, from results, as the correlated polling-error term, and the two are never added together.