Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Wisconsin Assembly

Wisconsin Assembly District 97

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Cindi Duchow (R)

Wisconsin Assembly District 97: Decided: only a Republican is runningWisconsin Assembly 15: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+13Wisconsin Assembly 31: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+23Wisconsin Assembly 33: chance of a Democratic win 1%; 2024 president R+30Wisconsin Assembly 38: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+31Wisconsin Assembly 43: chance of a Democratic win 88%; 2024 president D+5Wisconsin Assembly 46: chance of a Democratic win 92%; 2024 president D+8Wisconsin Assembly 82: chance of a Democratic win 14%; 2024 president R+8Wisconsin Assembly 84: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+39Wisconsin Assembly 99: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+32Wisconsin Assembly District 97: Decided: only a Republican is running82158499433331463897
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 97 is safe Republican. Of its 9 neighbouring districts, 2 favour Democrats, 7 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesCindi Duchow (R)
Candidate list fromwikipedia
Current memberCindi Duchow

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024R+42
President 2024R+34
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtWisconsin
Median household income$103,167$75,670
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)42%33%
Median age4140
White (not Hispanic)85%79%
Black2%6%
Hispanic9%8%
Asian2%3%
Born abroad5%5%
Jobs in manufacturing16%18%
Jobs in farming or mining1%2%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.