Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › West Virginia House

West Virginia House District 68

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Chris Phillips (R)

West Virginia House District 68: Decided: only a Republican is runningWest Virginia House 65: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+54West Virginia House 66: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+53West Virginia House 67: chance of a Democratic win 20%; 2024 president R+47West Virginia House 69: chance of a Democratic win 5%; 2024 president R+56West Virginia House 71: chance of a Democratic win 8%; 2024 president R+34West Virginia House 73: chance of a Democratic win 5%; 2024 president R+53West Virginia House 84: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+60West Virginia House 85: chance of a Democratic win 3%; 2024 president R+68West Virginia House District 68: Decided: only a Republican is running7365698467856668
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 68 is safe Republican. Of its 8 neighbouring districts, 8 favour Republicans.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesChris Phillips (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberChris Phillips

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024uncontested (R)
President 2024R+63
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtWest Virginia
Median household income$49,358$57,917
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)13%23%
Median age4443
White (not Hispanic)92%90%
Black1%3%
Hispanic1%2%
Asian0%1%
Born abroad1%2%
Jobs in manufacturing10%8%
Jobs in farming or mining6%3%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.