Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Oklahoma House

Oklahoma House District 50

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Stacy Jo Adams (R)

Oklahoma House District 50: Decided: only a Republican is runningOklahoma House 48: chance of a Democratic win <1%Oklahoma House 49: chance of a Democratic win 4%Oklahoma House 51: chance of a Democratic win <1%Oklahoma House 63: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+55Texas House 68: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+73Texas House 69: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+55Oklahoma House District 50: Decided: only a Republican is running48514963TX 68TX 6950
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 50 is safe Republican. Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 6 favour Republicans. 2 of them are across the state line.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesStacy Jo Adams (R)
Candidate list fromnews guide + filing book
Current memberStacy Adams

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtOklahoma
Median household income$57,728$63,603
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)19%28%
Median age4137
White (not Hispanic)77%63%
Black2%7%
Hispanic9%12%
Asian1%2%
Born abroad3%6%
Jobs in manufacturing10%9%
Jobs in farming or mining12%4%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.