Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Nebraska Legislature

Nebraska Legislature District 48

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

No Democrat running: counted Republican · Brian Hardin (R), Jessica M. Landers (R)

Nebraska Legislature District 48: No Democrat running: counted RepublicanColorado Senate 1: chance of a Democratic win 5%Nebraska Nebraska Legislature 47: not up in 2026 (held by republican)Wyoming Senate 3: chance of a Democratic win <1%Wyoming Senate 6: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+54Nebraska Legislature District 48: No Democrat running: counted RepublicanWY 6WY 347CO 148
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 48 is safe Republican. Of its 4 neighbouring districts, 4 favour Republicans. 3 of them are across the state line.

StatusNo Democrat running: counted Republican
CandidatesBrian Hardin (R), Jessica M. Landers (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberBrian Hardin

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022no two-party contest; won by Brian Hardin (independent or nonpartisan)
Governor 2022R+56
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtNebraska
Median household income$60,911$74,985
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)25%34%
Median age4137
White (not Hispanic)73%76%
Black1%5%
Hispanic22%12%
Asian1%2%
Born abroad4%8%
Jobs in manufacturing8%11%
Jobs in farming or mining5%4%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.