Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Nebraska Legislature

Nebraska Legislature District 47

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Not up in 2026 (held by Republican)

Nebraska Legislature District 47: Not up in 2026 (held by Republican)Colorado Senate 1: chance of a Democratic win 5%Nebraska Nebraska Legislature 42: chance of a Democratic win <1%Nebraska Nebraska Legislature 43: not up in 2026 (held by republican)Nebraska Nebraska Legislature 48: chance of a Democratic win <1%South Dakota Senate 30: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+47Wyoming Senate 3: chance of a Democratic win <1%Nebraska Legislature District 47: Not up in 2026 (held by Republican)48SD 30WY 342CO 14347
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 47 is not up in 2026 (held by a Republican). Of its 6 neighbouring districts, 6 favour Republicans. 3 of them are across the state line.

StatusNot up in 2026 (held by Republican)
Current memberPaul Strommen

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2024no two-party contest; won by Paul E Strommen (independent or nonpartisan)
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtNebraska
Median household income$60,687$74,985
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)22%34%
Median age4437
White (not Hispanic)85%76%
Black2%5%
Hispanic10%12%
Asian1%2%
Born abroad3%8%
Jobs in manufacturing7%11%
Jobs in farming or mining12%4%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.