Election forecasts you can inspect.Tested models, shown with their sources and their uncertainty.

Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

State legislatures › Iowa House

Iowa House District 13

2026 forecast · Updated October 22, 2026, 09:28 UTC

Decided: only a Republican is running · Travis M. Sitzmann (R)

Iowa House District 13: Decided: only a Republican is runningIowa House 1: chance of a Democratic win 86%; 2024 president R+2Iowa House 12: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+46Iowa House 14: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+27Iowa House 15: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+36Iowa House 2: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+19Iowa House 3: chance of a Democratic win <1%; 2024 president R+58Iowa House 5: chance of a Democratic win 2%; 2024 president R+56South Dakota House 17: chance of a Democratic win >99%; 2024 president R+19Iowa House District 13: Decided: only a Republican is running12SD 1731512513
Safe DLean DToss-upLean RSafe RHatched: not up in 2026 (shaded by holder) · dashed: other state

District 13 is safe Republican. Of its 8 neighbouring districts, 2 favour Democrats, 6 favour Republicans. 1 of them is across the state line.

StatusDecided: only a Republican is running
CandidatesTravis M. Sitzmann (R)
Candidate list fromofficial
Current memberTravis Sitzmann

How it has voted

On its current lines. Legislative contests and the top-of-ticket vote inside the district.

Legislature 2022no two-party contest; won by Ken E Carlson (Republican)
Governor 2022R+65
Legislature 2024R+59
President 2024R+55
← RepublicanDemocratic →

Who lives here

Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2019-2023.

This districtIowa
Median household income$80,943$73,147
Bachelor's degree or more (25+)22%31%
Median age4339
White (not Hispanic)92%83%
Black1%4%
Hispanic3%7%
Asian0%2%
Born abroad2%6%
Jobs in manufacturing13%15%
Jobs in farming or mining11%4%

Initial version. This model was tested on every state legislative election from 1994 to 2024 before publication, forecasting each as if it had not happened. It beat the simple rule “the party that holds the seat keeps it”, and its chamber seat counts were off by 2.9 seats on average (target: under 3). Districts with no two-party race last time are read from their own presidential vote, a change tested in advance that cut their average error from 17 to 13 points. It missed one of its five accuracy targets: in 2024, the calmest year on record, its ranges were wider than they needed to be (92% of results fell inside its 80% ranges; target: at most 88%). Treat the ranges as cautious. The full test record and code.